World Cup Market Belief
France
Market belief — what the market is pricing
These are independent per-venue "yes" markets on the team winning the tournament; across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround), so they are not a normalized probability distribution. A dash means that venue has no priced market for this team.
Movement — how this belief is changing
Trajectory builds from the daily 00:00 UTC marks: 24-hour change appears after the second mark, 7-day change after the eighth. No values are shown until that history exists.
Match records — this team’s fixtures
Upcoming
 England Knockout | 2026-07-18 |
Recent
 Spain Knockout | 2026-07-14 |
 Morocco Knockout | 2026-07-09 |
 Paraguay Knockout | 2026-07-04 |
 Sweden Knockout | 2026-06-30 |
 Norway Group Stage | 2026-06-26 |
 Iraq Group Stage | 2026-06-22 |
 Senegal Group Stage | 2026-06-16 |
Each row links to that match’s Event Record. A match appears once its markets list and are bound; fixtures not yet listed are absent, not zero. All match records →
Top scorer markets — players from this team
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 41.0% | 39.5% |
| Ousmane Dembele | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Barcola | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Michael Olise | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Randal Kolo Muani | 1.0% | — |
| Marcus Thuram | — | 0.1% |
| Desire Doue | — | 0.1% |
Players are shown in the order of the full cross-venue top-scorer ladder — not a per-team ranking. Each figure is that venue’s independent "yes" price on the player leading the World Cup in goals; a dash means no priced market on that venue, not zero. These markets price a most-goals proposition and may differ from official award rules. All top-scorer markets →
All World Cup teams
Methodology & About
Markets are collected from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs. The figures here are observational: VolRoc reports what these venues are trading and takes no positions — it is not a sportsbook, broker, or betting operator, and nothing here is betting advice or a prediction. Implied probabilities are each venue’s championship "yes" price for this team; they are independent markets and sum to more than 100% (overround) across teams. Open interest (Kalshi, contracts) and 24-hour volume (Polymarket, USD) are reported per venue in native units and never summed. All values are approximate and timestamped to the latest captured hour.
“France — World Cup Prediction Markets, VolRoc.” https://volroc.ai/world-cup-prediction-markets/teams/france/
About VolRoc
VolRoc is building an observability platform for prediction markets, options markets, and narratives. We track how expectations move, where conviction forms, and how markets coordinate around uncertainty. The Observatory is an early public view into that work.
Coming soon
- ✓Market State
- Conviction Monitor
- Situation Explorer
- Cross-Venue Intelligence
- Public API
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