How much capital stands behind current beliefs. Kalshi — standing unresolved commitment. Polymarket — trading activity and available liquidity. Reported separately. Never blended.
When independent venues price the same proposition, the Observatory grades how closely they agree.
Derived at render time from archived per-venue facts.
Where independent markets disagree about the same question — by how much, and for how long. No single venue can publish this about itself.
Live today inside the World Cup Observatory →Every observatory is a configuration of the same framework — the same methodology, the same archive, the same honesty rules.
Sources. Public market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Cadence. Figures refresh approximately every 15 minutes; the live page shows the current diurnal value.
Archive. Each day is frozen at 00:00 UTC and published as an immutable dated record. Change is measured against this canonical series, never against live diurnal values.
Facts & interpretations. Facts — prices, open interest, volumes — are archived immutably. Labels, classifications, and rankings are derived at render time, so interpretation can improve without ever rewriting history.
Active markets. Markets currently live and open.
Open interest. Reported per venue in native terms wherever venues are compared. Where a combined magnitude appears, Kalshi open interest and Polymarket liquidity are labeled as a comparable magnitude — not an identical instrument.
Domains. A venue-agnostic subject taxonomy classified from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords; a residual Other bucket is reported honestly.
Volume. Reported per venue and never blended across venues unless explicitly labeled (Kalshi in contracts, Polymarket in US dollars).
Neutrality. The Observatory measures belief; it does not forecast, recommend, or take positions.
VolRoc is an observatory of publicly available prediction-market data. It is not a sportsbook, broker, or exchange.