World Cup Prediction Markets

Schedule — Match Records

World Cup market overview

Market consensus — what the market believes

Team	Kalshi	PolymarketPoly	24h
Spain	57.6%	21.3%	+37.1 ptsK
France	0.1%	39.4%	-39.6 ptsK
England	23.0%	21.6%	+1.6 ptsK
Argentina	19.5%	17.3%	+1.3 ptsK

Ladder sums — Kalshi 100% across 4 priced · Polymarket 100% across 4 priced. Independent markets sum above 100% (overround); this is not a normalized probability distribution.

Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.

Biggest movers — how the consensus is changing

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi	PolymarketPoly
Spain	+37.1 pts	+0.8 pts
England	+1.6 pts	+0.1 pts
Argentina	+1.3 pts	-0.8 pts

▼ Decliners

Team	Kalshi	PolymarketPoly
France	-39.6 pts	+0.5 pts

Change in implied "yes" probability versus the 00:00 UTC canonical daily mark, in percentage points, per venue, never blended. Teams are ranked by their largest single-venue change; both venues are shown for each team. This section appears only once enough frozen daily records exist — 24-hour shifts after two days, 7-day shifts after eight.

Favorites over time — the daily canonical record

One line per team, drawn from the venue with the deeper daily series and labeled with that venue — venues are never blended within a line. Each mark is the frozen 00:00 UTC canonical daily record, not an intraday quote.

Advancement outlook — stage-priced structure

Reach markets price the probability of reaching a stage. Elimination-stage markets price a different proposition and are not shown. Each team's five-rung reach ladder (R16 · QF · SF · Final · Win) is on its team page — open any team below. A missing stage means no priced market, not zero.

Tournament

Capital concentration — where the most capital sits

Kalshi markets are ranked by open interest (contracts) and Polymarket markets by 24-hour volume (USD). The two venues use different units and are never combined into a single ranking.

Full prediction-capital record — concentration, leaders, and daily history →

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagree

Team	Kalshi	PolymarketPoly	Spread
France	0.1%	39.4%	39.3 pts
Spain	57.6%	21.3%	36.3 pts
Argentina	19.5%	17.3%	2.2 pts
England	23.0%	21.6%	1.5 pts

Spread is the absolute difference between the two venues' "yes" prices, in percentage points. Venue figures are displayed side by side and never averaged.

Methodology & About

Markets are collected from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs. The figures here are observational: VolRoc reports what these venues are trading and takes no positions — it is not a sportsbook, broker, or betting operator, and nothing here is betting advice or a prediction. World Cup markets are identified by Kalshi series prefix and by title text (FIFA / "World Cup"); other tournaments that share the "World Cup" name (for example the cricket T20 World Cup) are excluded. Market consensus shows each team's implied championship "yes" price per venue; these are independent markets and sum to more than 100% (overround), so they are not a normalized probability distribution. Open interest and 24-hour volume are reported per venue in each venue's native unit — Kalshi in contracts, Polymarket in US dollars — and figures from different venues are never summed. All values are approximate and timestamped to the latest captured hour.

“VolRoc World Cup Prediction Markets Observatory.” volroc.ai/world-cup-prediction-markets/

Explore — every team, every page

Top Scorer Markets — the most-goals race, player by player →

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