VolRoc / World Cup Prediction Markets / Top Scorer
World Cup Top Scorer Markets
What prediction markets believe about the 2026 World Cup top-scorer race — implied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket, the capital behind them, and how that belief is changing. Observational; not a sportsbook.
As of 2026-07-17 18:20 UTC · refreshed daily from VolRoc's capture pipeline
19 players priced — Kalshi 15 · Polymarket 17 · leader Lionel Messi at 59.0% Kalshi / 58.1% Polymarket
Belief
Market Consensus
Implied probability of leading the 2026 World Cup in goals, per venue. The two venues are listed side by side and never blended; a dash means that venue carries no priced market for the player, not zero.
| # | Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lionel MessiArgentina | 59.0% | 58.1% |
| 2 | Kylian Mbappefrance | 41.0% | 39.5% |
| 3 | Ferran TorresSpain | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 4 | Ousmane Dembelefrance | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 5 | Julian AlvarezArgentina | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 6 | Harry Kaneengland | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 7 | Bradley Barcolafrance | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Lautaro MartinezArgentina | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Bukayo Sakaengland | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 10 | Michael Olisefrance | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 11 | Jude Bellinghamengland | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 12 | Mikel OyarzabalSpain | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 13 | Lamine YamalSpain | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 14 | Randal Kolo Muanifrance | 1.0% | — |
| 15 | Marcus Rashfordengland | 1.0% | — |
| 16 | Marcus Thuramfrance | — | 0.1% |
| 17 | PedriSpain | — | 0.1% |
| 18 | Dani OlmoSpain | — | 0.1% |
| 19 | Desire Douefrance | — | 0.1% |
Ladder sums — Kalshi 113.0% across 15 priced players · Polymarket 99.1% across 17. Sums differ from 100% because venue books carry margin and the two venues list different player sets; sums are per-venue and not comparable across venues.
Cross-venue
Cross-Venue Divergence
Largest gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket implied probabilities, among the 13 players priced on both venues. Prices are shown side by side and never averaged — the gap is an observation, not a signal.
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 41.0% | 39.5% | 1.5 pts | Kalshi higher |
| Ferran Torres | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts | Kalshi higher |
| Ousmane Dembele | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts | Kalshi higher |
| Julian Alvarez | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts | Kalshi higher |
| Bradley Barcola | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts | Kalshi higher |
| Lautaro Martinez | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts | Kalshi higher |
| Bukayo Saka | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts | Kalshi higher |
| Michael Olise | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts | Kalshi higher |
Capital
Capital Supporting This Belief
How much is at stake behind these prices, in each venue's native units. Kalshi reports open interest in contracts; Polymarket reports liquidity and volume in US dollars. Contracts and dollars are not comparable and are never summed across venues.
Deepest Kalshi markets · open interest (contracts)
- Lionel Messi2,007,725
- Kylian Mbappe1,994,776
- Harry Kane1,398,112
- Jude Bellingham824,384
- Ousmane Dembele730,198
- Lamine Yamal468,209
Most-traded Polymarket markets · 24h volume (USD)
- Lionel Messi$206,747
- Kylian Mbappe$149,953
- Harry Kane$100,890
- Jude Bellingham$89,992
- Mikel Oyarzabal$44,507
- Ousmane Dembele$39,189
Coverage
Player Directory
All 19 players carrying a priced top-scorer market on at least one venue, alphabetically. A player appearing on one venue only reflects that venue's listings — absence is a listing fact, not a probability.
- Bradley BarcolafranceK 1.0%P 0.1%
- Bukayo SakaenglandK 1.0%P 0.1%
- Dani OlmoSpainP 0.1%
- Desire DouefranceP 0.1%
- Ferran TorresSpainK 1.0%P 0.1%
- Harry KaneenglandK 1.0%P 0.5%
- Jude BellinghamenglandK 1.0%P 0.2%
- Julian AlvarezArgentinaK 1.0%P 0.1%
- Kylian MbappefranceK 41.0%P 39.5%
- Lamine YamalSpainK 1.0%P 0.1%
- Lautaro MartinezArgentinaK 1.0%P 0.1%
- Lionel MessiArgentinaK 59.0%P 58.1%
- Marcus RashfordenglandK 1.0%
- Marcus ThuramfranceP 0.1%
- Michael OlisefranceK 1.0%P 0.1%
- Mikel OyarzabalSpainK 1.0%P 0.1%
- Ousmane DembelefranceK 1.0%P 0.1%
- PedriSpainP 0.1%
- Randal Kolo MuanifranceK 1.0%
About
About VolRoc
VolRoc is an observational market-intelligence layer over public prediction markets. This page reports what Kalshi and Polymarket participants are collectively pricing about the 2026 World Cup top-scorer race — implied probabilities, the capital behind them, and how that belief changes over time. VolRoc is not a sportsbook, broker, or exchange; it takes no positions, makes no predictions, and offers no recommendations.
- ✓ Market State — live cross-venue belief surfaces
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