VolRoc / World Cup Prediction Markets / Top Scorer
World Cup Top Scorer Markets
What prediction markets believe about the 2026 World Cup top-scorer race — implied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket, the capital behind them, and how that belief is changing. Observational; not a sportsbook.
As of 2026-07-07 00:20 UTC · refreshed daily from VolRoc's capture pipeline
37 players priced — Kalshi 37 · Polymarket 0 · leader Kylian Mbappe at 46.0% Kalshi
Belief
Market Consensus
Implied probability of leading the 2026 World Cup in goals, per venue. The two venues are listed side by side and never blended; a dash means that venue carries no priced market for the player, not zero.
| # | Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kylian MbappeFrance | 46.0% | — |
| 2 | Lionel MessiArgentina | 32.0% | — |
| 3 | Erling HaalandNorway | 13.0% | — |
| 4 | Harry KaneEngland | 7.0% | — |
| 5 | Ousmane DembeleFrance | 2.0% | — |
| 6 | Cody GakpoNetherlands | 1.0% | — |
| 7 | Michael OliseFrance | 1.0% | — |
| 8 | RodrygoBrazil | 1.0% | — |
| 9 | Bruno FernandesPortugal | 1.0% | — |
| 10 | Christian PulisicUSA | 1.0% | — |
| 11 | Folarin BalogunUSA | 1.0% | — |
| 12 | NeymarBrazil | 1.0% | — |
| 13 | Luis DiazColombia | 1.0% | — |
| 14 | Matheus CunhaBrazil | 1.0% | — |
| 15 | Ferran TorresSpain | 1.0% | — |
| 16 | Randal Kolo MuaniFrance | 1.0% | — |
| 17 | Lautaro MartinezArgentina | 1.0% | — |
| 18 | Mohamed SalahEgypt | 1.0% | — |
| 19 | RicharlisonBrazil | 1.0% | — |
| 20 | Darwin NunezUruguay | 1.0% | — |
Top 20 shown by implied probability (higher-venue rank, as emitted). All 37 priced players are in the player directory below.
Ladder sums — Kalshi 132.0% across 37 priced players · Polymarket 0.0% across 0. Sums differ from 100% because venue books carry margin and the two venues list different player sets; sums are per-venue and not comparable across venues.
Capital
Capital Supporting This Belief
How much is at stake behind these prices, in each venue's native units. Kalshi reports open interest in contracts; Polymarket reports liquidity and volume in US dollars. Contracts and dollars are not comparable and are never summed across venues.
Deepest Kalshi markets · open interest (contracts)
- Kylian Mbappe1,090,458
- Lionel Messi1,013,197
- Erling Haaland1,012,758
- Harry Kane671,893
- Ousmane Dembele622,556
- Vinicius Junior413,251
Coverage
Player Directory
All 37 players carrying a priced top-scorer market on at least one venue, alphabetically. A player appearing on one venue only reflects that venue's listings — absence is a listing fact, not a probability.
- Alvaro MorataSpainK 1.0%
- Bradley BarcolaFranceK 1.0%
- Bruno FernandesPortugalK 1.0%
- Bukayo SakaEnglandK 1.0%
- Christian PulisicUSAK 1.0%
- Cody GakpoNetherlandsK 1.0%
- Darwin NunezUruguayK 1.0%
- Deniz UndavGermanyK 1.0%
- Erling HaalandNorwayK 13.0%
- Ferran TorresSpainK 1.0%
- Folarin BalogunUSAK 1.0%
- Harry KaneEnglandK 7.0%
- Igor ThiagoBrazilK 1.0%
- Jude BellinghamEnglandK 1.0%
- Julian AlvarezArgentinaK 1.0%
- Kylian MbappeFranceK 46.0%
- Lamine YamalSpainK 1.0%
- Lautaro MartinezArgentinaK 1.0%
- Lionel MessiArgentinaK 32.0%
- Luis DiazColombiaK 1.0%
- Matheus CunhaBrazilK 1.0%
- Memphis DepayNetherlandsK 1.0%
- Michael OliseFranceK 1.0%
- Mikel OyarzabalSpainK 1.0%
- Mohamed SalahEgyptK 1.0%
- NeymarBrazilK 1.0%
- Nick WoltemadeGermanyK 1.0%
- Ousmane DembeleFranceK 2.0%
- Randal Kolo MuaniFranceK 1.0%
- RaphinhaBrazilK 1.0%
- RicharlisonBrazilK 1.0%
- RodrygoBrazilK 1.0%
- Romelu LukakuBelgiumK 1.0%
- Scott McTominayScotlandK 1.0%
- Son Heung-minSouth KoreaK 1.0%
- Viktor GyökeresSwedenK 1.0%
- Vinicius JuniorBrazilK 1.0%
About
About VolRoc
VolRoc is an observational market-intelligence layer over public prediction markets. This page reports what Kalshi and Polymarket participants are collectively pricing about the 2026 World Cup top-scorer race — implied probabilities, the capital behind them, and how that belief changes over time. VolRoc is not a sportsbook, broker, or exchange; it takes no positions, makes no predictions, and offers no recommendations.
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