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France vs Spain

Knockout · Tue 14 Jul 2026 · Preview
A dated record of what prediction markets believed about this match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Reports what markets traded — not a prediction or betting advice.

Current market belief · what the market is pricing

Each outcome’s independent “yes” price on Kalshi · as of 2026-07-14 00:30:05.630699+00. Raw venue facts, shown as priced.
France
42%
"yes" implied probability
Draw
30%
"yes" implied probability
Spain
29%
"yes" implied probability

Independent per-outcome "yes" prices; they may sum to more than 100% (overround) and are not a normalized distribution. A dash means no priced market for that outcome, not zero. Not a forecast.

Capital on each outcome

Open interest and volume per outcome, in Kalshi-native units (contracts). Never summed across outcomes.
OutcomeOpen interestVolume (total)24h volume
France778,332822,726309,356
Draw235,503251,872125,567
Spain139,789146,74884,594

Contracts are Kalshi-native; a dash is an absent market, a 0 is a real zero. Capital is never combined across outcomes or venues.

Daily mark history · the record

Each row is one immutable daily mark, frozen 00:00 UTC. The series grows by one row per day.
DateFranceDrawSpain
2026-07-1142%30%31%
2026-07-1242%30%29%
2026-07-1342%30%30%
2026-07-1442%30%29%
France
42%
Draw
30%
Spain
29%

Values are each outcome’s Kalshi "yes" price on that date’s mark. Append-only; past marks are never restated.

Record provenance

Event ID
ev:wc2026:ko:esp-fra:2026-07-14
Data status
Preview
Registry
wc_events_v7
Registry hash
sha256:0bf8293a6457c759…
Leg structure
Partition
First mark
2026-07-11
Last mark
2026-07-14
Mark count
4

About this record

Observational
This record reports what markets traded. It does not predict outcomes or offer betting advice.
Venue
Kalshi only
Units
Open interest & volume in contracts (Kalshi-native)
Markets included
Moneyline (1X2): France, Draw, Spain

Methodology & about

Markets are collected from the public Kalshi API and bound to a canonical event identity contemporaneously, before kickoff. Figures are observational: VolRoc reports what the venue is trading and takes no positions — not a sportsbook, broker, or betting operator. Prices are raw “yes” prices per outcome (overround preserved, never normalized); capital is Kalshi-native and never summed. Each daily mark is immutable and frozen at 00:00 UTC.

“France vs Spain — World Cup Event Record, VolRoc.” https://volroc.ai/world-cup-prediction-markets/events/esp-fra-2026-07-14/

About VolRocMethodologyAPIArchiveWorld CupEvent RecordsObservational market statistics. Not a sportsbook or broker.