Spain

Market belief — what the market is pricing

These are independent per-venue "yes" markets on the team winning the tournament; across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround), so they are not a normalized probability distribution. A dash means that venue has no priced market for this team.

Movement — how this belief is changing

Movement is repricing against the canonical daily mark, per venue — it describes how the market has revised this team’s implied probability over time, not a forecast.

How far the market thinks they go — stage by stage

Each rung is an independent market on the team reaching that stage; “Win Tournament” is the championship market, priced on both venues. Belief is each venue’s “yes” price, shown as priced — a dash means no priced market, not zero, and nothing is derived beneath a dash. Agreement is computed from the displayed prices at build time (not stored) and appears only where both venues price the same rung; reach markets are Kalshi-only today, so it appears on the Win rung alone. Momentum is the 24-hour change versus the 00:00 UTC daily mark. Capital is shown in each venue’s native unit and is never summed across rungs. These describe what the market is trading, not a forecast.

Match records — this team’s fixtures

Recent

Portugal Knockout	2026-07-06
Austria Knockout	2026-07-02
Uruguay Group Stage	2026-06-26
Saudi Arabia Group Stage	2026-06-21

Each row links to that match’s Event Record. A match appears once its markets list and are bound; fixtures not yet listed are absent, not zero. All match records →

Current ranking — where this stands in the field

Rank	Team	Kalshi	Polymarket
#1	France	33.3%	19.8%
#2	Spain	18.2%	13.9%
#3	Argentina	17.3%	13.4%
#4	England	14.2%	12.6%
#5	Portugal	—	6.8%
#6	Germany	—	5.7%

Showing the top 6 of 45 teams. Rank is by the higher of the two venue prices; each venue’s figure is shown separately and never combined.

Teams near this position

#1France#2Spain#3Argentina#4England#5Portugal

Capital supporting this belief

Open interest and liquidity are reported in each venue’s native unit and are never summed. Share of field is a current reading, scoped to each venue independently.

Capital on the winner market

Spain holds 5.7% of all committed capital on the World Cup winner market while priced 12.1% to win — a capital discount. See the full capital record →

Observable Prediction Capital is the standing stock of collateral-backed capital on the Kalshi winner market; share is this team’s portion of it, and “priced to win” is the overround-adjusted implied probability. Capital concentrates with attention and disagreement, not only with the odds.

Top scorer markets — players from this team

Players are shown in the order of the full cross-venue top-scorer ladder — not a per-team ranking. Each figure is that venue’s independent "yes" price on the player leading the World Cup in goals; a dash means no priced market on that venue, not zero. These markets price a most-goals proposition and may differ from official award rules. All top-scorer markets →

All World Cup teams

← World Cup market overview  ·  Top Scorer Markets →

Methodology & About

Markets are collected from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs. The figures here are observational: VolRoc reports what these venues are trading and takes no positions — it is not a sportsbook, broker, or betting operator, and nothing here is betting advice or a prediction. Implied probabilities are each venue’s championship "yes" price for this team; they are independent markets and sum to more than 100% (overround) across teams. Open interest (Kalshi, contracts) and 24-hour volume (Polymarket, USD) are reported per venue in native units and never summed. All values are approximate and timestamped to the latest captured hour.

“Spain — World Cup Prediction Markets, VolRoc.” https://volroc.ai/world-cup-prediction-markets/teams/spain/