World Cup Market Belief
Scotland
Market belief — what the market is pricing
These are independent per-venue "yes" markets on the team winning the tournament; across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround), so they are not a normalized probability distribution. A dash means that venue has no priced market for this team.
Movement — how this belief is changing
Movement is repricing against the canonical daily mark, per venue — it describes how the market has revised this team’s implied probability over time, not a forecast.
Match records — this team’s fixtures
Recent
 Brazil Group Stage | 2026-06-24 |
Each row links to that match’s Event Record. A match appears once its markets list and are bound; fixtures not yet listed are absent, not zero. All match records →
Current ranking — where this stands in the field
| Rank | Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |  France | 33.3% | 19.8% |
| #2 |  Spain | 18.2% | 13.9% |
| #3 |  Argentina | 17.3% | 13.4% |
| #4 |  England | 14.2% | 12.6% |
| #5 |  Portugal | — | 6.8% |
| #6 |  Germany | — | 5.7% |
| ⋯ | |||
| #32 | Scotland | — | 0.1% |
Showing the top 6 of 45 teams, plus Scotland at #32. Rank is by the higher of the two venue prices; each venue’s figure is shown separately and never combined.
Teams near this position
Capital supporting this belief
Open interest and liquidity are reported in each venue’s native unit and are never summed. Share of field is a current reading, scoped to each venue independently.
Top scorer markets — players from this team
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Scott McTominay | 1.0% | — |
Players are shown in the order of the full cross-venue top-scorer ladder — not a per-team ranking. Each figure is that venue’s independent "yes" price on the player leading the World Cup in goals; a dash means no priced market on that venue, not zero. These markets price a most-goals proposition and may differ from official award rules. All top-scorer markets →
All World Cup teams
Methodology & About
Markets are collected from the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs. The figures here are observational: VolRoc reports what these venues are trading and takes no positions — it is not a sportsbook, broker, or betting operator, and nothing here is betting advice or a prediction. Implied probabilities are each venue’s championship "yes" price for this team; they are independent markets and sum to more than 100% (overround) across teams. Open interest (Kalshi, contracts) and 24-hour volume (Polymarket, USD) are reported per venue in native units and never summed. All values are approximate and timestamped to the latest captured hour.
“Scotland — World Cup Prediction Markets, VolRoc.” https://volroc.ai/world-cup-prediction-markets/teams/scotland/
About VolRoc
VolRoc is building an observability platform for prediction markets, options markets, and narratives. We track how expectations move, where conviction forms, and how markets coordinate around uncertainty. The Observatory is an early public view into that work.
Coming soon
- ✓Market State
- Conviction Monitor
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