World Cup Prediction Capital
Committed to the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market.
as of July 14, 2026 · 00:50 UTC
Capital does not always follow the odds — Argentina and Spain attract more capital than their win probability implies.
Capital vs probability — where attention concentrates
The shape of the divergence
Each team’s share of committed capital is plotted against its overround-adjusted share of implied win-probability; the dashed line is where capital would track probability exactly (the 48 yes-prices sum to 0.994 before adjustment). Teams below the line hold more capital than their odds imply; teams above hold more odds than capital. Divergence is capital share minus implied-probability share — a signal of attention and two-sided disagreement, not a prediction.
Team capital — the record
| Rank | Team | OPC (USD) | Capital shareShare | Implied prob | DivergenceDiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |  Francecapital discount$39.2M | $39,239,936 | 31.8% | 39.6% | −7.9 pts |
| #2 |  Argentinacapital premium$36.3M | $36,307,314 | 29.4% | 17.6% | +11.8 pts |
| #3 |  Spaincapital discount$25.3M | $25,327,693 | 20.5% | 20.9% | −0.4 pts |
| #4 |  Englandcapital discount$22.6M | $22,635,323 | 18.3% | 21.8% | −3.5 pts |
OPC is floor(open interest × $1); Kalshi binaries are $1-collateralised. The event total is $123,510,267 (per-team floors sum to $1 below it — dropped sub-dollar fractions, not missing capital). A dash means no priced market, never zero.
Capital over time — the daily record
Each daily record is pinned by SHA-256 to its source snapshot, so the level on any past day cannot be recomputed or revised after the fact.
Methodology & limits
- Single-venue (Kalshi) only. Cross-venue total is blocked pending notional normalisation; Polymarket figures are USD liquidity (depth), not OPC.
- left_censored applies to the historical peak (OI_peak) and lifecycle, not to this current snapshot: the standing stock at snapshot_time is observable in full.
- Gross-locked counts collateral jointly held on the YES and NO side of each team binary (clearinghouse-held capital on the event). It is genuine committed risk capital, not a double-count, but it is not 'money staked on the winner' in the simplex sense; see methodology.
- Outcome prices carry an overround (sum of yes_price = 0.994); the price-implied shares in /teams normalise it out.
- Settlement axis is empty (the tournament is unresolved); no SPR/EER is published.
- Off-venue / dark capital is unobservable by definition.
Machine-readable records: event · teams · history · methodology · schema. Every figure on this page is read verbatim from these endpoints; nothing is recomputed here.
Cite this record
This record captures the capital committed to the World Cup winner market at a specific moment in time. The underlying data and methodology are permanently archived.
Technical provenance
Full machine-readable provenance is available through the OPC API, the page’s JSON-LD, and the published schema — see the methodology links below.
Cite as "VolRoc" with a link to https://volroc.ai. Observational data, not advice; not a sportsbook, broker, or exchange.
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