World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+0.7	+0.0	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	+0.4	+0.1	+0.4 pts ᴷ
England	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Germany	+0.0	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴾ
Canada	+0.2	+0.1	+0.2 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	-0.7	+0.2	−0.7 pts ᴷ
USA	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.2	-0.1	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Portugal	-0.2	+0.0	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Colombia	-0.2	+0.2	−0.2 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	3.6%	2.2%	1.3 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Argentina	10.8%	11.8%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Mexico	1.7%	1.4%	0.4 pts
Morocco	2.0%	2.4%	0.3 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	18.7%	18.4%	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.4%	13.7%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
England	13.1%	12.8%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Argentina	10.8%	11.8%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Portugal	8.0%	7.8%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.8%	6.7%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Germany	6.0%	5.9%	+0.2 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	4.3%	4.0%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
USA	3.6%	2.2%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.6%	2.5%	−0.1 pts ᴾ