World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
USA	+1.5	+1.1	+1.5 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+0.8	+0.5	+0.8 pts ᴷ
Germany	+0.0	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴾ
Mexico	+0.2	+0.1	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Norway	+0.1	-0.1	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Portugal	-1.3	-0.4	−1.3 pts ᴷ
England	-0.3	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Japan	+0.0	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Switzerland	-0.3	-0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Australia	-0.3	-0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	5.1%	3.4%	1.7 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Argentina	10.8%	11.8%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Portugal	6.7%	7.3%	0.6 pts
Mexico	1.9%	1.5%	0.4 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	18.5%	18.4%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.3%	13.7%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
England	12.8%	12.6%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	10.8%	11.8%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.7%	7.3%	−1.3 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.8%	6.7%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Germany	6.0%	6.0%	+0.2 pts ᴾ
USA	5.1%	3.4%	+1.5 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	4.1%	4.0%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Morocco	2.8%	2.9%	+0.8 pts ᴷ