{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-19","as_of":"2026-06-19T00:50:18Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-19.json","source_sha256":"3db81f7da573c62478245d573794b8806d8543ce22a2ca7ac0b6d0ff18f628d3","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-19T00:50:18Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":3658,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":3562},{"venue":"polymarket","count":96}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":2481,"polymarket":96,"total":2577},"last_updated":"2026-06-19T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":418813890.12,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":568906338.06,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":80228254.75,"polymarket_usd":66459893.71,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-06-19T00:50:18Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.187,"oi_contracts":13096773.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1845,"liquidity_usd":5683127.29,"volume_24h_usd":1531435.65},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.07,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.0,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.017,"polymarket":0.024},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1645,0.1595,0.1615,0.1615,0.1615,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1715,0.1815,0.1845]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.83,"oi_contracts":36740.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.48,"oi_contracts":83055.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":77634.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":98167.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.187,"oi_contracts":13096773.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.134,"oi_contracts":10262944.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1365,"liquidity_usd":6444653.83,"volume_24h_usd":688325.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.19,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.14,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":-0.033},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1595,0.1595,0.1615,0.1615,0.1595,0.1605,0.1645,0.1695,0.1685,0.1655,0.1605,0.1465,0.1325,0.1375]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.43,"oi_contracts":100173.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":64590.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":57819.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":22236.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.134,"oi_contracts":10262944.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.131,"oi_contracts":9187012.79,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1285,"liquidity_usd":4721885.86,"volume_24h_usd":1160291.28},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.85,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.84,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.023,"polymarket":0.023},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1145,0.1125,0.1125,0.1105,0.1095,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055,0.0965,0.0965,0.0965,0.1055,0.1045,0.1285]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":39874.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":68560.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":33677.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.79,"oi_contracts":19187.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.131,"oi_contracts":9187012.79,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.108,"oi_contracts":10511607.74,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1175,"liquidity_usd":5330476.51,"volume_24h_usd":2258143.36},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.26,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.94,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.007,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.019,"polymarket":0.029},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0885,0.0885,0.0885,0.0885,0.0845,0.0875,0.0855,0.0885,0.0785,0.0785,0.0795,0.0845,0.1015,0.1155]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":54202.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":96694.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":52853.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.57,"oi_contracts":121550.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.108,"oi_contracts":10511607.74,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":16123124.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0775,"liquidity_usd":3977720.07,"volume_24h_usd":1727466.49},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.0,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.029,"polymarket":-0.031},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0935,0.0965,0.1005,0.0965,0.0985,0.1015,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055,0.1055,0.1105,0.1075,0.1005,0.0775]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.67,"oi_contracts":37003.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":134870.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":51922.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":169007.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":16123124.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.068,"oi_contracts":8671337.67,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0665,"liquidity_usd":5966912.97,"volume_24h_usd":728945.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.69,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.06,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":-0.02},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0835,0.0825,0.0825,0.0835,0.0835,0.0845,0.0845,0.0865,0.0835,0.0765,0.0675,0.0665,0.0665,0.0665]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.45,"oi_contracts":66756.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":92265.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":35935.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.68,"oi_contracts":30698.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.068,"oi_contracts":8671337.67,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":8375875.13,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0585,"liquidity_usd":3695521.96,"volume_24h_usd":2485143.24},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.6,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.65,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.007},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0535,0.0535,0.0575,0.0545,0.0535,0.0525,0.0525,0.0515,0.0515,0.0515,0.0605,0.0635,0.0585,0.0565]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":28952.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":21560.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":20745.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":25866.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":8375875.13,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.043,"oi_contracts":13741174.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0395,"liquidity_usd":3181543.2,"volume_24h_usd":1411912.83},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.27,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.56,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.018,"polymarket":-0.0045},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0405,0.044,0.0475,0.0485,0.0515,0.0445,0.0455,0.0395]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.54,"oi_contracts":49464.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":87359.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":149799.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":48536.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.043,"oi_contracts":13741174.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.036,"oi_contracts":21925297.15,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0225,"liquidity_usd":2897252.21,"volume_24h_usd":2251065.55},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.81,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.51,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.019,"polymarket":0.011},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0195,0.0205,0.0205,0.0215,0.0225]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":154484.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":149439.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.65,"oi_contracts":222213.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":158211.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.036,"oi_contracts":21925297.15,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.026,"oi_contracts":7216575.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0255,"liquidity_usd":3854892.52,"volume_24h_usd":816971.02},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.24,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.68,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0255,0.0255,0.0265,0.0255,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0235,0.0245,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0255,0.0265]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":20814.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":25848.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":23076.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":27517.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.026,"oi_contracts":7216575.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":10692735.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0235,"liquidity_usd":1735948.11,"volume_24h_usd":1655886.91},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.32,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0165,0.0195,0.0175,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0235,0.0205,0.0215,0.0265,0.0235]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.49,"oi_contracts":65412.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":31867.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":39115.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":49018.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":10692735.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":6531532.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0155,"liquidity_usd":5988816.43,"volume_24h_usd":2025709.3},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.03,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.06,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":-0.005},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0195,0.0195,0.0195,0.0205,0.0225,0.0225,0.0215,0.0205,0.0205,0.0205,0.0195,0.0175,0.0175,0.0165]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":32795.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":29755.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":18569.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":45466.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":6531532.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":16697556.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0135,"liquidity_usd":8033679.66,"volume_24h_usd":2602168.17},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.18,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.42,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.007,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0125,0.0125,0.0125,0.0135,0.0145,0.0125,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0125,0.0145,0.0145]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.57,"oi_contracts":119038.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":174100.57,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":178928.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":161183.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":16697556.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":8352003.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0165,"liquidity_usd":3167003.45,"volume_24h_usd":1215700.78},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.59,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.56,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0185,0.0215,0.0205,0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175,0.0205,0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0165,0.0165]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":59765.57,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":33327.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":70939.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":54895.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":8352003.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":8715131.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0165,"liquidity_usd":4365540.56,"volume_24h_usd":2250370.53},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.71,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.77,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0185,0.0195,0.0195,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175,0.0165,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0145]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":58789.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":20356.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":87249.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":76307.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":8715131.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.012,"oi_contracts":7128803.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0095,"liquidity_usd":3779291.0,"volume_24h_usd":5266349.41},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.21,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.67,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0095,0.0105,0.0125,0.0115,0.0105,0.0115,0.0125,0.0125,0.0145,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":10191.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":6145.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":16231.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":20113.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.012,"oi_contracts":7128803.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":377474.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":8402083.31,"volume_24h_usd":3650655.11},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.12,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.49,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":12074.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":21492.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":9023.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":33115.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":377474.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":152784.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":26710689.4,"volume_24h_usd":62000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.05,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.72,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1361.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":7960.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":207.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7892.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":152784.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":157612.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":22144012.22,"volume_24h_usd":1292967.97},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.05,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.92,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1251.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":7184.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":7141.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5993.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":157612.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":151721.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":11737020.89,"volume_24h_usd":3053300.91},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.05,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.08,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1776.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":5776.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.25,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":11228.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6502.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":151721.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.007,"oi_contracts":7425717.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":4799266.01,"volume_24h_usd":1237716.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.3,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.85,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":21717.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":15417.66,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":17330.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":16394.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.007,"oi_contracts":7425717.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":6194681.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":8111405.4,"volume_24h_usd":1023880.25},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.92,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.43,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0075,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":24601.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":9362.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":14894.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":11998.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":6194681.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":6238953.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":11278834.19,"volume_24h_usd":1009483.31},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.94,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.99,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":19570.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":17326.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":5045.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":3141.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":6238953.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":6187964.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":10578012.59,"volume_24h_usd":1278868.88},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.92,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.87,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0035,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":2540.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":9380.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2864.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":30887.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":6187964.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":7629174.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":4541087.83,"volume_24h_usd":788232.14},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.37,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.8,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0075,0.0075,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":73982.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":56270.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":17418.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":39445.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":7629174.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":9946205.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":9799589.77,"volume_24h_usd":1180238.88},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.09,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.73,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":7197.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":30935.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":7687.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":61905.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":9946205.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":5546432.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":6266509.92,"volume_24h_usd":5566259.1},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.72,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.11,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":3944.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":13977.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":49132.66,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":15971.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":5546432.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":9579586.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":4585635.48,"volume_24h_usd":2866882.5},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.97,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0045,0.0035,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":15021.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":47690.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":18035.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":20420.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":9579586.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":5081736.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":16318781.38,"volume_24h_usd":973689.47},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.58,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.89,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":3524.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":9126.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8273.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":10346.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.23,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":5081736.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Türkiye","slug":"turkey","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":5830666.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":4484958.15,"volume_24h_usd":1017585.69},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.81,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.79,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":-0.006},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.013,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0125,0.0115,0.0125,0.0105,0.0125,0.0135,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":24263.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":68662.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.29,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":16589.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":13428.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":5830666.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":6678748.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":5739342.01,"volume_24h_usd":560641.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.07,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.01,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":9273.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6492.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":2580.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":35101.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":6678748.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":6586153.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":9297754.34,"volume_24h_usd":865652.45},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.64,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":515.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":11847.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":37529.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2250.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":6586153.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6264810.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":13843254.61,"volume_24h_usd":2429591.29},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.94,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.45,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":6145.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":10066.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":4795.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":15199.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6264810.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":5443276.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":19493538.1,"volume_24h_usd":2358707.97},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.69,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.45,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":754.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":18294.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4667.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":29754.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":5443276.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":8589619.08,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":11563374.71,"volume_24h_usd":175431.05},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.67,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.04,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":16669.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3425.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":28606.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":8589619.08,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6631855.87,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":14524538.66,"volume_24h_usd":2162687.57},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.06,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.57,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1317.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":4673.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":660.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":13679.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6631855.87,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5014030.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":13678891.06,"volume_24h_usd":902799.67},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.56,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.42,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5395.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5397.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":4234.57,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":25074.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5014030.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Haiti","slug":"haiti","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":7065808.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":26591538.65,"volume_24h_usd":60250.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.19,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":11761.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":14349.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":42245.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":9267.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":7065808.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":4917780.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":20615838.15,"volume_24h_usd":383643.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.53,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.65,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":20071.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4072.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":8363.57,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":9537.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":4917780.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2433066.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":25823967.1,"volume_24h_usd":78021.34},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.76,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.57,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1719.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":8184.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1987.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1489.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2433066.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1152818.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":24745968.62,"volume_24h_usd":72314.67},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.36,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.38,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":20894.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7894.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":608.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1966.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1152818.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1130235.63,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":22534169.83,"volume_24h_usd":70302.98},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.35,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.98,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1422.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":748.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":32063.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4417.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1130235.63,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5467207.08,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":26871546.13,"volume_24h_usd":64533.02},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.7,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.75,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5747.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":10811.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1595.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":17768.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5467207.08,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":783176.38,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":26126271.26,"volume_24h_usd":62299.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.24,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":12385.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4627.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1310.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8736.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":783176.38,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Tunisia","slug":"tunisia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":20174008.43,"volume_24h_usd":70079.95},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.16,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.57,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3959.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4982.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2453.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":15402.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}