World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	+2.5	+2.4	+2.5 pts ᴷ
Argentina	+2.4	+1.4	+2.4 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.4	+0.1	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Portugal	-3.0	-2.3	−3.0 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.8	+0.5	−0.8 pts ᴷ
France	-0.6	+0.3	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	-0.1	-0.6	−0.6 pts ᴾ
Norway	-0.3	+0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	3.9%	2.2%	1.7 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
France	18.0%	18.4%	0.5 pts
Portugal	8.2%	7.8%	0.5 pts
Netherlands	4.4%	4.0%	0.4 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	18.0%	18.4%	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.6%	13.8%	−0.8 pts ᴷ
England	12.9%	12.8%	+2.5 pts ᴷ
Argentina	11.5%	11.6%	+2.4 pts ᴷ
Portugal	8.2%	7.8%	−3.0 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.8%	6.7%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	6.0%	5.7%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	4.4%	4.0%	−0.6 pts ᴾ
USA	3.9%	2.2%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.6%	2.6%	−0.3 pts ᴷ