World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · July 15, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-07-15 00:50:11 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
| Team | Kalshi Δ | Polymarket Δ | Largest move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +37.2 | +0.0 | +37.2 pts ᴷ |
| Argentina | +1.9 | -0.1 | +1.9 pts ᴷ |
| England | +1.2 | -0.7 | +1.2 pts ᴷ |
| France | — | +0.4 | +0.4 pts ᴾ |
▼ Fallers
No fallers above the threshold in this record.
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 58.0% | 21.2% | 36.7 pts |
| Argentina | 19.4% | 17.3% | 2.1 pts |
| England | 22.9% | 21.6% | 1.4 pts |
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 58.0% | 21.2% | +37.2 pts ᴷ |
| France | — | 39.4% | +0.4 pts ᴾ |
| England | 22.9% | 21.6% | +1.2 pts ᴷ |
| Argentina | 19.4% | 17.3% | +1.9 pts ᴷ |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-07-15 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.