World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · July 16, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-07-16 00:50:13 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
| Team | Kalshi Δ | Polymarket Δ | Largest move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | +23.3 | +23.3 | +23.3 pts ᴷ |
▼ Fallers
| Team | Kalshi Δ | Polymarket Δ | Largest move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | -0.8 | -0.2 | −0.8 pts ᴷ |
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 57.2% | 58.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Argentina | 42.7% | 42.1% | 0.6 pts |
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 57.2% | 58.0% | −0.8 pts ᴷ |
| Argentina | 42.7% | 42.1% | +23.3 pts ᴷ |
| France | — | — | — |
| England | — | — | — |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-07-16 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.