World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	+0.3	+0.8	+0.8 pts ᴾ
Spain	+0.3	+0.8	+0.8 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	-0.7	-0.7	−0.7 pts ᴷ
France	-0.3	+0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
England	21.7%	22.2%	0.6 pts
France	39.4%	39.0%	0.5 pts
Spain	20.8%	21.2%	0.5 pts
Argentina	17.5%	17.4%	0.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	39.4%	39.0%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
England	21.7%	22.2%	+0.8 pts ᴾ
Spain	20.8%	21.2%	+0.8 pts ᴾ
Argentina	17.5%	17.4%	−0.7 pts ᴷ