{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-15","as_of":"2026-07-15T00:50:11Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-15.json","source_sha256":"5963bb5253d77750232a288161d8fe470c563d3e6a090a14d9dde48477f32f5c","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-15T00:50:11Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1402,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":964},{"venue":"polymarket","count":438}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":731,"polymarket":251,"total":982},"last_updated":"2026-07-15T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":144222424.34,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":53453861.46,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":41726961.15,"polymarket_usd":8342354.43,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-15T00:50:11Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":27803419.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2125,"liquidity_usd":8425854.54,"volume_24h_usd":1834559.89},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":30.8,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":26.84,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.372,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.394,"polymarket":0.027},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.411,"polymarket":0.052},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17,0.213,0.204,0.205,0.208],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3935,"liquidity_usd":6833252.35,"volume_24h_usd":1669915.5},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":21.77,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.063},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.233},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34,0.332,0.345,0.337,0.401,0.384,0.39,0.397,0.394],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.229,"oi_contracts":24053161.08,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2155,"liquidity_usd":7686164.49,"volume_24h_usd":1344450.23},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":26.64,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":24.49,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.012,"polymarket":-0.007},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.071,"polymarket":0.059},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.125,"polymarket":0.119},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141,0.158,0.156,0.158,0.155,0.207,0.214,0.217],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.54,"oi_contracts":395624.57,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.229,"oi_contracts":24053161.08,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.194,"oi_contracts":38427265.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1735,"liquidity_usd":8444985.13,"volume_24h_usd":1284658.21},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":42.56,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":26.9,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.019,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.005,"polymarket":-0.012},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.105,"polymarket":0.094},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185,0.184,0.18,0.182,0.175],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":1202185.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.194,"oi_contracts":38427265.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":1433568.54,"volume_24h_contracts":311552.95,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3395,"liquidity_usd":452064.0,"volume_24h_usd":42200.03},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.26,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":-0.044},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":1813182.91,"volume_24h_contracts":748311.47,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.565,"liquidity_usd":867488.39,"volume_24h_usd":66774.93},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.28,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":0.14},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry Kane","slug":"harry-kane","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1163601.38,"volume_24h_contracts":336582.13,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0495,"liquidity_usd":119049.11,"volume_24h_usd":91030.66},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":-0.021},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Jude Bellingham","slug":"jude-bellingham","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":612708.21,"volume_24h_contracts":209113.12,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0345,"liquidity_usd":155437.18,"volume_24h_usd":148402.38},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":0.032},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bradley Barcola","slug":"bradley-barcola","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1303.33,"volume_24h_contracts":457.3,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":371296.83,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lautaro Martinez","slug":"lautaro-martinez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":145791.01,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":336857.79,"volume_24h_usd":160.91},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Michael Olise","slug":"michael-olise","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":276039.6,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":216470.6,"volume_24h_usd":3159.67},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ferran Torres","slug":"ferran-torres","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":354423.36,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":332178.51,"volume_24h_usd":5180.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ousmane Dembele","slug":"ousmane-dembele","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":722903.07,"volume_24h_contracts":47465.36,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0075,"liquidity_usd":85931.16,"volume_24h_usd":154998.23},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.002},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Julian Alvarez","slug":"julian-alvarez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":190956.34,"volume_24h_contracts":46.75,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":336179.19,"volume_24h_usd":160.91},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bukayo Saka","slug":"bukayo-saka","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":134893.18,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":346573.59,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Mikel Oyarzabal","slug":"mikel-oyarzabal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":423578.45,"volume_24h_contracts":22505.08,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":124976.67,"volume_24h_usd":181985.97},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lamine Yamal","slug":"lamine-yamal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":426716.07,"volume_24h_contracts":7766.1,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":71405.96,"volume_24h_usd":10457.98},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.0005},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Marcus Rashford","slug":"marcus-rashford","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1598.86,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Randal Kolo Muani","slug":"randal-kolo-muani","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6172.65,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Marcus Thuram","slug":"marcus-thuram","team":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":399135.98,"volume_24h_usd":4230.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Pedri","slug":"pedri","team":"spain","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":333480.24,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Desire Doue","slug":"desire-doue","team":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":335132.71,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Dani Olmo","slug":"dani-olmo","team":"spain","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":363259.68,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}}],"players_history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true},"players_note":"Top Scorer (most-goals) ladder: per-player implied 'yes' price for leading the 2026 World Cup in goals — Kalshi's KXWCGOALLEADER tournament markets and Polymarket's equivalent top-scorer markets, resolved through the curated wc_players.json registry (allowlist; explicit aliases only, no fuzzy matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}