{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-14","as_of":"2026-07-14T00:50:13Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-14.json","source_sha256":"13831f2ad1485809a88cbffbfb83ddff592baa0efc05fab2dda165924a7874b8","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-14T00:50:13Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1585,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1136},{"venue":"polymarket","count":449}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":846,"polymarket":279,"total":1125},"last_updated":"2026-07-14T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":186927731.29,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":55274128.58,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":25961088.76,"polymarket_usd":7762745.88,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-14T00:50:13Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.394,"oi_contracts":39239936.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3895,"liquidity_usd":8246474.91,"volume_24h_usd":1386172.95},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":31.77,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":26.39,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.062,"polymarket":0.192},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.222,"polymarket":0.229},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34,0.332,0.345,0.337,0.401,0.384,0.39,0.397],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":1243552.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.394,"oi_contracts":39239936.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.217,"oi_contracts":22635323.34,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2225,"liquidity_usd":7367874.35,"volume_24h_usd":1245513.11},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":18.33,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":23.58,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.076,"polymarket":0.097},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.113,"polymarket":0.126},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141,0.158,0.156,0.158,0.155,0.207,0.214],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.54,"oi_contracts":377057.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.217,"oi_contracts":22635323.34,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.208,"oi_contracts":25327693.27,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2125,"liquidity_usd":7584482.48,"volume_24h_usd":1348520.72},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":20.51,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":24.27,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.026,"polymarket":0.074},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.043,"polymarket":0.047},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17,0.213,0.204,0.205],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":231393.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.208,"oi_contracts":25327693.27,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.175,"oi_contracts":36307314.22,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1745,"liquidity_usd":8049039.63,"volume_24h_usd":1407447.94},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":29.4,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":25.76,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.007,"polymarket":-0.007},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.008,"polymarket":0.041},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.086,"polymarket":0.096},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185,0.184,0.18,0.182],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":1168131.66,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.175,"oi_contracts":36307314.22,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":1623620.16,"volume_24h_contracts":79074.58,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.565,"liquidity_usd":1325549.92,"volume_24h_usd":117444.05},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.14,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":1238200.92,"volume_24h_contracts":22235.85,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3385,"liquidity_usd":585679.35,"volume_24h_usd":27555.29},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry Kane","slug":"harry-kane","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1033657.72,"volume_24h_contracts":59834.55,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0465,"liquidity_usd":96908.81,"volume_24h_usd":77215.22},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Jude Bellingham","slug":"jude-bellingham","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":456047.68,"volume_24h_contracts":183626.94,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0335,"liquidity_usd":154468.85,"volume_24h_usd":177173.82},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":0.0025},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bradley Barcola","slug":"bradley-barcola","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":846.03,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":350499.35,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lautaro Martinez","slug":"lautaro-martinez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":145791.01,"volume_24h_contracts":9445.42,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":318309.2,"volume_24h_usd":96.26},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Michael Olise","slug":"michael-olise","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":276039.6,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":195884.04,"volume_24h_usd":3159.67},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ferran Torres","slug":"ferran-torres","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":354423.36,"volume_24h_contracts":467.59,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":304994.61,"volume_24h_usd":5180.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ousmane 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Saka","slug":"bukayo-saka","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":134893.18,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":323293.71,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Mikel Oyarzabal","slug":"mikel-oyarzabal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":403408.49,"volume_24h_contracts":33.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":107204.1,"volume_24h_usd":230091.96},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lamine 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World Cup in goals — Kalshi's KXWCGOALLEADER tournament markets and Polymarket's equivalent top-scorer markets, resolved through the curated wc_players.json registry (allowlist; explicit aliases only, no fuzzy matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}