World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	+0.7	+0.8	+0.8 pts ᴾ
France	+0.7	+0.4	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Argentina	+0.2	-0.1	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Spain	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

No fallers above the threshold in this record.

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	39.7%	38.9%	0.9 pts
England	21.4%	21.4%	0.1 pts
Spain	20.5%	20.4%	0.1 pts
Argentina	18.2%	18.1%	0.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	39.7%	38.9%	+0.7 pts ᴷ
England	21.4%	21.4%	+0.8 pts ᴾ
Spain	20.5%	20.4%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Argentina	18.2%	18.1%	+0.2 pts ᴷ