World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	+5.2	+5.7	+5.7 pts ᴾ
France	+0.6	+1.1	+1.1 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Norway	-6.5	-6.0	−6.5 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.9	-0.6	−0.9 pts ᴷ
Argentina	-0.4	+0.1	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	+0.0	-0.1	−0.1 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	39.0%	38.5%	0.6 pts
Switzerland	1.9%	1.6%	0.3 pts
Argentina	18.0%	18.3%	0.3 pts
England	20.7%	20.6%	0.1 pts
Spain	20.4%	20.4%	0.1 pts
Norway	0.1%	0.1%	0.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	39.0%	38.5%	+1.1 pts ᴾ
England	20.7%	20.6%	+5.7 pts ᴾ
Spain	20.4%	20.4%	−0.9 pts ᴷ
Argentina	18.0%	18.3%	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	1.9%	1.6%	−0.1 pts ᴾ
Norway	0.1%	0.1%	−6.5 pts ᴷ