{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-13","as_of":"2026-07-13T00:50:11Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-13.json","source_sha256":"534c51dc24ba45184c6c4d9db47c4d033073d58f71f015243d0f8e89ed2d4683","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-13T00:50:11Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1482,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1039},{"venue":"polymarket","count":443}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":795,"polymarket":319,"total":1114},"last_updated":"2026-07-13T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":166302049.55,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":51626123.23,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":32431556.62,"polymarket_usd":20228656.78,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-13T00:50:11Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.397,"oi_contracts":38172697.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3885,"liquidity_usd":6673959.55,"volume_24h_usd":3245567.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":31.52,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":22.79,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.057,"polymarket":0.191},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.225,"polymarket":0.228},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34,0.332,0.345,0.337,0.401,0.384,0.39],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":1214376.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.397,"oi_contracts":38172697.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.214,"oi_contracts":22252686.65,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2145,"liquidity_usd":7283182.27,"volume_24h_usd":3684866.71},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":18.37,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":24.87,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.132,"polymarket":0.089},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.106,"polymarket":0.118},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141,0.158,0.156,0.158,0.155,0.207],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.54,"oi_contracts":366669.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.36,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.214,"oi_contracts":22252686.65,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.205,"oi_contracts":24925042.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2045,"liquidity_usd":7659719.96,"volume_24h_usd":2974923.43},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":20.58,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":26.16,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":0.066},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.034,"polymarket":0.036},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17,0.213,0.204],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":230699.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.205,"oi_contracts":24925042.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.182,"oi_contracts":35758579.78,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1815,"liquidity_usd":7662861.42,"volume_24h_usd":7311446.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":29.53,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":26.17,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":-0.0015},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.006,"polymarket":0.048},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.092,"polymarket":0.103},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185,0.184,0.18],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.45,"oi_contracts":1170408.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.182,"oi_contracts":35758579.78,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":1556994.3,"volume_24h_contracts":244615.63,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.565,"liquidity_usd":1010041.52,"volume_24h_usd":251441.35},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":0.09},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":1240309.98,"volume_24h_contracts":104896.17,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3425,"liquidity_usd":463501.08,"volume_24h_usd":228097.17},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.12,"polymarket":-0.0825},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry Kane","slug":"harry-kane","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1011567.16,"volume_24h_contracts":145769.54,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0425,"liquidity_usd":98322.61,"volume_24h_usd":140246.72},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Jude Bellingham","slug":"jude-bellingham","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":277837.07,"volume_24h_contracts":114577.11,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.031,"liquidity_usd":142386.43,"volume_24h_usd":347214.79},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0055},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Michael Olise","slug":"michael-olise","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":276039.6,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":212159.63,"volume_24h_usd":2000.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lamine Yamal","slug":"lamine-yamal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":418482.38,"volume_24h_contracts":9258.38,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":85300.7,"volume_24h_usd":23400.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bukayo Saka","slug":"bukayo-saka","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":134893.18,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":347403.67,"volume_24h_usd":2253.7},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Mikel Oyarzabal","slug":"mikel-oyarzabal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":403375.49,"volume_24h_contracts":175.33,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":130329.38,"volume_24h_usd":116760.02},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ferran Torres","slug":"ferran-torres","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":353955.77,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":333809.08,"volume_24h_usd":2090.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ousmane Dembele","slug":"ousmane-dembele","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":700829.71,"volume_24h_contracts":4812.84,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.009,"liquidity_usd":94370.12,"volume_24h_usd":195976.7},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0015},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Julian Alvarez","slug":"julian-alvarez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":190909.59,"volume_24h_contracts":467.59,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":328730.28,"volume_24h_usd":7079.62},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bradley Barcola","slug":"bradley-barcola","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":846.03,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":366654.2,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lautaro Martinez","slug":"lautaro-martinez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":136870.9,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":330221.61,"volume_24h_usd":369.62},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Randal Kolo Muani","slug":"randal-kolo-muani","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6172.65,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Marcus Rashford","slug":"marcus-rashford","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1597.93,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Pedri","slug":"pedri","team":"spain","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":328009.05,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Desire Doue","slug":"desire-doue","team":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":331639.23,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Dani Olmo","slug":"dani-olmo","team":"spain","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":361200.73,"volume_24h_usd":2000.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Marcus Thuram","slug":"marcus-thuram","team":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":397444.83,"volume_24h_usd":1000.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}}],"players_history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true},"players_note":"Top Scorer (most-goals) ladder: per-player implied 'yes' price for leading the 2026 World Cup in goals — Kalshi's KXWCGOALLEADER tournament markets and Polymarket's equivalent top-scorer markets, resolved through the curated wc_players.json registry (allowlist; explicit aliases only, no fuzzy matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}