World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	+4.3	+3.6	+4.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	-0.1	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Norway	+0.3	+0.2	+0.3 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	-1.7	-1.4	−1.7 pts ᴷ
England	-0.3	-1.0	−1.0 pts ᴾ
Switzerland	+0.0	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	38.4%	37.4%	1.1 pts
England	15.5%	14.9%	0.6 pts
Norway	6.6%	6.0%	0.6 pts
Spain	21.3%	21.1%	0.3 pts
Argentina	18.4%	18.1%	0.3 pts
Switzerland	1.9%	1.7%	0.2 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	38.4%	37.4%	−1.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	21.3%	21.1%	+4.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	18.4%	18.1%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
England	15.5%	14.9%	−1.0 pts ᴾ
Norway	6.6%	6.0%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	1.9%	1.7%	−0.3 pts ᴾ