{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-12","as_of":"2026-07-12T00:50:14Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-12.json","source_sha256":"f978bc21f5fcb3125b45d76f78c4b881fbbde9bcba30871f4369597529a100bc","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-12T00:50:14Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1688,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1168},{"venue":"polymarket","count":520}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":869,"polymarket":344,"total":1213},"last_updated":"2026-07-12T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":290363981.07,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":22285379.56,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":87615989.55,"polymarket_usd":26888959.35,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-12T00:50:14Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":37041789.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3845,"liquidity_usd":943168.41,"volume_24h_usd":1841511.59},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":20.15,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":10.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.006,"polymarket":0.011},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.028,"polymarket":0.187},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.22,"polymarket":0.224},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.248,0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34,0.332,0.345,0.337,0.401,0.384],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":1183954.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":37041789.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.207,"oi_contracts":21633152.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2065,"liquidity_usd":1017783.31,"volume_24h_usd":3480695.87},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":11.77,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":10.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.052,"polymarket":0.057},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.141,"polymarket":0.081},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.099,"polymarket":0.101},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.101,0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141,0.158,0.156,0.158,0.155],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.99,"oi_contracts":150855.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.34,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.7,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":277790.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.36,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.207,"oi_contracts":21633152.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.204,"oi_contracts":24658629.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2045,"liquidity_usd":1416807.38,"volume_24h_usd":1730058.62},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":13.41,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":15.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.009,"polymarket":-0.006},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.078,"polymarket":0.066},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":0.035},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.111,0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17,0.213],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":232110.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.204,"oi_contracts":24658629.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":35279833.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.183,"liquidity_usd":822777.83,"volume_24h_usd":2763044.05},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":19.19,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":8.74,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.0015},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.013,"polymarket":0.0495},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.091,"polymarket":0.0945},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.184,0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185,0.184],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.43,"oi_contracts":1083132.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":430049.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":35279833.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":24737858.76,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0155,"liquidity_usd":3094918.34,"volume_24h_usd":4147260.18},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":13.45,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":32.88,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":0.009},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.009,0.009,0.008,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.009,0.008,0.009,0.022,0.022,0.019,0.019],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":83461.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":98459.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":24737858.76,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":40518476.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":2116635.43,"volume_24h_usd":9209929.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":22.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":22.49,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.065,"polymarket":-0.06},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.016,"polymarket":-0.019},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.024,"polymarket":-0.023},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.018,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.018,0.017,0.017,0.059,0.056,0.061,0.064,0.063,0.066],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":468272.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.15,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":292727.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.34,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.14,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":40518476.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":1402513.23,"volume_24h_contracts":168338.58,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.475,"liquidity_usd":74152.64,"volume_24h_usd":54505.62},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":0.04},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.43,"oi_contracts":1219190.02,"volume_24h_contracts":26839.41,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.425,"liquidity_usd":47283.3,"volume_24h_usd":38859.2},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":0.0485},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry 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This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}