World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+6.4	+6.2	+6.4 pts ᴷ
England	+0.2	+0.1	+0.2 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Morocco	—	-2.9	−2.9 pts ᴾ
Argentina	-0.5	-2.2	−2.2 pts ᴾ
Spain	-1.8	-1.3	−1.8 pts ᴷ
Belgium	-0.3	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	-0.3	-0.2	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	40.1%	38.8%	1.4 pts
Argentina	18.5%	17.8%	0.7 pts
Norway	6.3%	5.9%	0.4 pts
Spain	17.0%	17.4%	0.4 pts
England	15.8%	16.0%	0.2 pts
Belgium	2.2%	2.1%	0.1 pts
Switzerland	1.9%	1.9%	0.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	40.1%	38.8%	+6.4 pts ᴷ
Argentina	18.5%	17.8%	−2.2 pts ᴾ
Spain	17.0%	17.4%	−1.8 pts ᴷ
England	15.8%	16.0%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Norway	6.3%	5.9%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Belgium	2.2%	2.1%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	1.9%	1.9%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Morocco	—	0.1%	−2.9 pts ᴾ