{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-11","as_of":"2026-07-11T00:50:16Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-11.json","source_sha256":"1ba1367db4f32fba65b40e99b95d8c4d4a925ef32d71988e480404f729b05229","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-11T00:50:16Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1754,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1226},{"venue":"polymarket","count":528}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":970,"polymarket":349,"total":1319},"last_updated":"2026-07-11T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":238553964.12,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":48092384.95,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":36794163.62,"polymarket_usd":18740119.78,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-11T00:50:16Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.384,"oi_contracts":36536828.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3735,"liquidity_usd":5675373.69,"volume_24h_usd":3040448.66},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":20.62,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":17.58,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.017,"polymarket":-0.014},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":0.176},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.213},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.229,0.248,0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34,0.332,0.345,0.337,0.401],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":1193011.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.384,"oi_contracts":36536828.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.213,"oi_contracts":24683258.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2105,"liquidity_usd":6477429.94,"volume_24h_usd":4922448.43},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":13.93,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":20.06,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.043,"polymarket":0.036},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.088,"polymarket":0.072},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.046},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.131,0.111,0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":232279.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.213,"oi_contracts":24683258.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.184,"oi_contracts":34463385.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1815,"liquidity_usd":5874436.78,"volume_24h_usd":1590806.84},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":19.45,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":18.19,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.034,"polymarket":0.048},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.096},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.147,0.184,0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":1027375.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":431788.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.184,"oi_contracts":34463385.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.155,"oi_contracts":21111802.32,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1495,"liquidity_usd":5318626.2,"volume_24h_usd":948862.18},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":11.92,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":16.47,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.01},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.082,"polymarket":0.024},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.041},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.1,0.101,0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141,0.158,0.156,0.158],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.65,"oi_contracts":132929.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.4,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":230161.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.2,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.155,"oi_contracts":21111802.32,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.066,"oi_contracts":38143172.37,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0605,"liquidity_usd":4849579.0,"volume_24h_usd":3727522.89},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":21.53,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":15.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.049,"polymarket":0.041},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.036},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.021,0.018,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.018,0.017,0.017,0.059,0.056,0.061,0.064,0.063],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":447530.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":281332.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.066,"oi_contracts":38143172.37,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":22241621.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0165,"liquidity_usd":4093842.61,"volume_24h_usd":1861477.77},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":12.55,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":12.68,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.013,"polymarket":0.01},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.004},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.009,0.009,0.008,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.009,0.008,0.009,0.022,0.022,0.019],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":75586.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":76713.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":22241621.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":1350250.37,"volume_24h_contracts":40276.08,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.435,"liquidity_usd":380757.73,"volume_24h_usd":59485.4},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.01},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":1203029.69,"volume_24h_contracts":25080.65,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3765,"liquidity_usd":346165.45,"volume_24h_usd":61719.73},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Erling 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2026 World Cup in goals — Kalshi's KXWCGOALLEADER tournament markets and Polymarket's equivalent top-scorer markets, resolved through the curated wc_players.json registry (allowlist; explicit aliases only, no fuzzy matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}