World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+0.1	+1.5	+1.5 pts ᴾ
Norway	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Spain	+0.2	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	-0.8	-0.5	−0.8 pts ᴷ
England	-0.2	+0.2	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Belgium	-0.2	+0.0	−0.2 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	33.7%	32.6%	1.2 pts
Argentina	19.0%	20.1%	1.1 pts
Norway	6.4%	5.9%	0.5 pts
England	15.6%	15.8%	0.3 pts
Morocco	3.2%	2.9%	0.3 pts
Spain	18.8%	18.8%	0.1 pts
Belgium	2.5%	2.5%	0.1 pts
Switzerland	2.2%	2.1%	0.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	33.7%	32.6%	−0.8 pts ᴷ
Argentina	19.0%	20.1%	+1.5 pts ᴾ
Spain	18.8%	18.8%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
England	15.6%	15.8%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Norway	6.4%	5.9%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Morocco	3.2%	2.9%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Belgium	2.5%	2.5%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	2.2%	2.1%	+0.0 pts ᴷ