{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-10","as_of":"2026-07-10T00:50:15Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-10.json","source_sha256":"df1b165b26f0b60676dc5717b4bd7278937bffde7df0ce2dbcc01ef4e0f73232","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-10T00:50:15Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1879,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1328},{"venue":"polymarket","count":551}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1068,"polymarket":419,"total":1487},"last_updated":"2026-07-10T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":248026329.72,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":61981848.16,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":36098780.83,"polymarket_usd":37464376.32,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-10T00:50:15Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.401,"oi_contracts":34873483.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3875,"liquidity_usd":6703179.09,"volume_24h_usd":5121034.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":18.1,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":14.47,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.064,"polymarket":0.062},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.063,"polymarket":0.19},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.239,"polymarket":0.227},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.194,0.229,0.248,0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34,0.332,0.345,0.337],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":1121408.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.401,"oi_contracts":34873483.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.185,"oi_contracts":33448097.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1785,"liquidity_usd":6811300.7,"volume_24h_usd":2541848.33},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":17.36,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":14.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.022},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.045},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.098,"polymarket":0.091},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.142,0.147,0.184,0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":984982.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":428368.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.185,"oi_contracts":33448097.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":24219372.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1745,"liquidity_usd":7257120.0,"volume_24h_usd":3319340.98},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":12.57,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":15.67,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.018,"polymarket":-0.013},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.041,"polymarket":0.036},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.005,"polymarket":0.014},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.134,0.131,0.111,0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.73,"oi_contracts":283985.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.24,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":188247.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":24219372.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.158,"oi_contracts":20799892.63,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1595,"liquidity_usd":6111517.42,"volume_24h_usd":2691009.24},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":10.79,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":13.19,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.083,"polymarket":0.034},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.053,"polymarket":0.054},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.098,0.1,0.101,0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141,0.158,0.156],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":130005.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.34,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":217507.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.158,"oi_contracts":20799892.63,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.063,"oi_contracts":35050895.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0585,"liquidity_usd":4723991.15,"volume_24h_usd":3678466.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":18.19,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":10.2,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.045,"polymarket":0.039},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.038,"polymarket":0.034},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.024,0.021,0.018,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.018,0.017,0.017,0.059,0.056,0.061,0.064],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":422241.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":260540.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.063,"oi_contracts":35050895.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":23105351.05,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"liquidity_usd":6346968.9,"volume_24h_usd":2904847.04},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":11.99,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":13.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.011},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.011,0.01,0.013,0.011,0.01,0.008,0.014,0.015,0.01,0.011,0.012,0.019,0.027,0.025],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":76668.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":107506.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":23105351.05,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":21197136.81,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0195,"liquidity_usd":5080932.52,"volume_24h_usd":3671302.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":11.0,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":10.97,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.013,"polymarket":0.013},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.008,"polymarket":0.008},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.008,0.009,0.009,0.008,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.009,0.008,0.009,0.022,0.022],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":74870.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":67885.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":21197136.81,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":3286388.81,"volume_24h_usd":10412126.79},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":7.09,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.029},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.021},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.017},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.014,0.015,0.013,0.012,0.014,0.032,0.025,0.026,0.024,0.033,0.03,0.028,0.031,0.032],"polymarket":[]}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":1325933.93,"volume_24h_contracts":128270.08,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.425,"liquidity_usd":94599.35,"volume_24h_usd":218632.31},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":0.01},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":1195334.11,"volume_24h_contracts":123701.58,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3755,"liquidity_usd":65292.8,"volume_24h_usd":190359.39},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":-0.007},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Erling 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