World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+2.2	+1.5	+2.2 pts ᴷ
England	+1.7	+1.0	+1.7 pts ᴷ
France	+1.3	+0.2	+1.3 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	+1.3	+1.1	+1.3 pts ᴷ
Norway	+0.5	+1.1	+1.1 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Colombia	—	-3.2	−3.2 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	34.5%	33.1%	1.4 pts
Argentina	18.9%	18.6%	0.4 pts
Belgium	2.7%	2.5%	0.2 pts
England	15.8%	15.7%	0.2 pts
Norway	6.1%	5.9%	0.2 pts
Morocco	3.1%	2.9%	0.2 pts
Spain	18.6%	18.6%	0.1 pts
Switzerland	2.2%	2.1%	0.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	34.5%	33.1%	+1.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	18.9%	18.6%	+2.2 pts ᴷ
Spain	18.6%	18.6%	+0.5 pts ᴾ
England	15.8%	15.7%	+1.7 pts ᴷ
Norway	6.1%	5.9%	+1.1 pts ᴾ
Morocco	3.1%	2.9%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Belgium	2.7%	2.5%	+0.8 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	2.2%	2.1%	+1.3 pts ᴷ
Colombia	—	0.1%	−3.2 pts ᴾ