{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-09","as_of":"2026-07-09T00:50:15Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-09.json","source_sha256":"f7b649db259ee80917bc01d44a96dd446c45f3edb774ffc29157a2ea37ff24bf","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-09T00:50:15Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1951,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1406},{"venue":"polymarket","count":545}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1168,"polymarket":368,"total":1536},"last_updated":"2026-07-09T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":274630689.67,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":76709237.66,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":43927045.55,"polymarket_usd":19310483.14,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-09T00:50:15Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.337,"oi_contracts":33779611.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3255,"liquidity_usd":6454152.16,"volume_24h_usd":1299438.01},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":16.0,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":11.53,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.008,"polymarket":-0.005},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.014,"polymarket":0.128},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.174,"polymarket":0.164},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.203,0.194,0.229,0.248,0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34,0.332,0.345],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.78,"oi_contracts":373069.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":1039484.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.337,"oi_contracts":33779611.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":32168122.73,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2005,"liquidity_usd":7690671.34,"volume_24h_usd":2931366.18},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":15.24,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":13.74,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.067},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.101,"polymarket":0.116},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.152,0.142,0.147,0.184,0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.43,"oi_contracts":941646.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.73,"oi_contracts":421564.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":32168122.73,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.188,"oi_contracts":23499068.49,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1875,"liquidity_usd":7804541.77,"volume_24h_usd":970419.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":11.13,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":13.95,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.095,"polymarket":0.049},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.023,"polymarket":0.028},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.134,0.134,0.131,0.111,0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":178028.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":285697.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.28,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.188,"oi_contracts":23499068.49,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.156,"oi_contracts":20386223.13,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1585,"liquidity_usd":6945392.42,"volume_24h_usd":673728.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":9.66,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":12.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.074,"polymarket":0.033},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.054,"polymarket":0.049},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.104,0.098,0.1,0.101,0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141,0.158],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":207636.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.2,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.65,"oi_contracts":128239.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.35,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.156,"oi_contracts":20386223.13,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.064,"oi_contracts":31207161.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0595,"liquidity_usd":5510418.0,"volume_24h_usd":2526744.62},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":14.78,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":9.85,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.044,"polymarket":0.04},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":0.034},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.029,0.024,0.021,0.018,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.018,0.017,0.017,0.059,0.056,0.061],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":388211.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":244708.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.064,"oi_contracts":31207161.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.032,"oi_contracts":28459557.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0295,"liquidity_usd":2282927.04,"volume_24h_usd":3360508.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":13.48,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.08,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.016,"polymarket":0.01},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.019,0.014,0.015,0.013,0.012,0.014,0.032,0.025,0.026,0.024,0.033,0.03,0.028,0.031],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":179165.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":97106.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.032,"oi_contracts":28459557.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.025,"oi_contracts":21286166.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0245,"liquidity_usd":6779509.81,"volume_24h_usd":1735453.83},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":10.08,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":12.12,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.011,"polymarket":0.014},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.011,0.01,0.013,0.011,0.01,0.008,0.014,0.015,0.01,0.011,0.012,0.019,0.027],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":76926.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":95286.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.025,"oi_contracts":21286166.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":20323788.88,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"liquidity_usd":12486003.17,"volume_24h_usd":3849960.53},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":9.63,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":22.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.016,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.011,"polymarket":0.011},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.009,0.009,0.008,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.009,0.008,0.009,0.022],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":75503.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":63134.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":20323788.88,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":1282821.5,"volume_24h_contracts":47340.08,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.415,"liquidity_usd":493221.07,"volume_24h_usd":33388.1},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":-0.01},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":1125796.75,"volume_24h_contracts":39831.57,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3825,"liquidity_usd":444853.78,"volume_24h_usd":62206.27},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Erling 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