{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-08","as_of":"2026-07-08T00:50:12Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-08.json","source_sha256":"0def81ee7938d06c4ca4dba2244fb1b4de241dbdc0318a9d98cb7fbf04969abb","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-08T00:50:12Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1843,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1287},{"venue":"polymarket","count":556}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":895,"polymarket":404,"total":1299},"last_updated":"2026-07-08T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":241424904.78,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":76169813.82,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":52495655.61,"polymarket_usd":64634351.31,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-08T00:50:12Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.345,"oi_contracts":33051554.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3305,"liquidity_usd":9656084.97,"volume_24h_usd":3224628.92},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":16.47,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":16.36,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.013,"polymarket":0.133},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.133},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.183,"polymarket":0.169},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.2,0.203,0.194,0.229,0.248,0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34,0.332],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":1020054.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.78,"oi_contracts":367270.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.345,"oi_contracts":33051554.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.189,"oi_contracts":30550662.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1855,"liquidity_usd":10045555.33,"volume_24h_usd":13093595.67},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":15.22,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":17.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.022,"polymarket":0.052},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.052},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":0.097},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.135,0.152,0.142,0.147,0.184,0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":895871.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":422692.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.189,"oi_contracts":30550662.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.186,"oi_contracts":22492402.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1855,"liquidity_usd":9847333.47,"volume_24h_usd":2813999.54},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":11.21,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":16.69,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.047},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.082,"polymarket":0.047},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.021,"polymarket":0.024},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.133,0.134,0.134,0.131,0.111,0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":286366.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.3,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":173281.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.186,"oi_contracts":22492402.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.158,"oi_contracts":19926057.65,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1565,"liquidity_usd":9110432.89,"volume_24h_usd":3384289.31},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":9.93,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":15.44,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.017,"polymarket":0.031},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.066,"polymarket":0.031},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.056,"polymarket":0.046},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.104,0.104,0.098,0.1,0.101,0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":121643.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.3,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":203579.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.158,"oi_contracts":19926057.65,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.061,"oi_contracts":28102279.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0595,"liquidity_usd":4142915.01,"volume_24h_usd":7405428.13},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":14.0,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":7.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.005,"polymarket":0.04},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.041,"polymarket":0.04},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.036,"polymarket":0.034},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.029,0.029,0.024,0.021,0.018,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.018,0.017,0.017,0.059,0.056],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":221944.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":363718.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.061,"oi_contracts":28102279.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.031,"oi_contracts":26320420.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0295,"liquidity_usd":1897020.32,"volume_24h_usd":4122124.58},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":13.11,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.21,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.015,"polymarket":0.013},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.019,0.019,0.014,0.015,0.013,0.012,0.014,0.032,0.025,0.026,0.024,0.033,0.03,0.028],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":161676.74,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":92983.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.031,"oi_contracts":26320420.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.027,"oi_contracts":20893427.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0245,"liquidity_usd":3694489.32,"volume_24h_usd":7147974.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":10.41,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":6.26,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.008,"polymarket":0.014},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.019,"polymarket":0.014},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.004},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.011,0.01,0.011,0.01,0.013,0.011,0.01,0.008,0.014,0.015,0.01,0.011,0.012,0.019],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":85041.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":74835.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.027,"oi_contracts":20893427.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":19355153.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"liquidity_usd":8117598.15,"volume_24h_usd":13474740.7},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":9.64,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":13.76,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.013,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.014,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.011,"polymarket":0.01},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.005,0.01,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.009,0.009,0.008,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.009,0.008,0.009],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":76112.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.16,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":62812.66,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":19355153.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":2503225.63,"volume_24h_usd":6323302.32},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.24,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.014},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.014},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.018},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.018,0.018,0.017,0.016,0.026,0.026,0.028,0.028,0.026,0.027,0.025,0.032,0.034,0.033],"polymarket":[]}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":1242583.76,"volume_24h_contracts":221848.89,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.425,"liquidity_usd":184418.53,"volume_24h_usd":178554.2},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":1102198.42,"volume_24h_contracts":343069.93,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3835,"liquidity_usd":153413.66,"volume_24h_usd":431071.72},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Erling 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