World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · July 7, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-07-07 00:50:08 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
| Team | Kalshi Δ | Polymarket Δ | Largest move |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | +5.9 | +6.2 | +6.2 pts ᴾ |
| Spain | +5.7 | +5.4 | +5.7 pts ᴷ |
| Belgium | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.7 pts ᴷ |
| Switzerland | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 pts ᴷ |
| Egypt | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 pts ᴾ |
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 5.6% | 4.9% | 0.8 pts |
| England | 14.1% | 14.6% | 0.6 pts |
| France | 33.2% | 32.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Argentina | 16.7% | 17.1% | 0.4 pts |
| USA | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Spain | 18.2% | 18.1% | 0.2 pts |
| Switzerland | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2 pts |
| Colombia | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.1 pts |
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 33.2% | 32.9% | −1.0 pts ᴾ |
| Spain | 18.2% | 18.1% | +5.7 pts ᴷ |
| Argentina | 16.7% | 17.1% | −1.2 pts ᴾ |
| England | 14.1% | 14.6% | +6.2 pts ᴾ |
| Portugal | — | — | — |
| Germany | — | — | — |
| Norway | 5.6% | 4.9% | −0.6 pts ᴾ |
| Brazil | — | — | — |
| Netherlands | — | — | — |
| USA | 1.7% | 1.4% | −2.3 pts ᴷ |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-07-07 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.