World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	+5.9	+0.0	+5.9 pts ᴷ
Spain	+5.7	+0.0	+5.7 pts ᴷ
Belgium	+0.7	+0.0	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
USA	-2.3	+0.0	−2.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	-0.9	+0.0	−0.9 pts ᴷ
France	-0.8	+0.0	−0.8 pts ᴷ
Norway	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Morocco	-0.2	+0.0	−0.2 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	33.2%	19.8%	13.5 pts
Spain	18.2%	13.9%	4.3 pts
Norway	5.6%	1.9%	3.7 pts
Argentina	16.7%	13.4%	3.4 pts
Colombia	3.3%	1.5%	1.9 pts
USA	1.7%	3.5%	1.8 pts
England	14.1%	12.6%	1.5 pts
Belgium	1.9%	1.1%	0.8 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	33.2%	19.8%	−0.8 pts ᴷ
Spain	18.2%	13.9%	+5.7 pts ᴷ
Argentina	16.7%	13.4%	−0.9 pts ᴷ
England	14.1%	12.6%	+5.9 pts ᴷ
Portugal	—	6.8%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Germany	—	5.7%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Norway	5.6%	1.9%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Brazil	—	5.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	5.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
USA	1.7%	3.5%	−2.3 pts ᴷ