{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-07","as_of":"2026-07-07T00:50:08Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-07.json","source_sha256":"06fa91da34077490a9deec6549d52539bd9f1c7efad7ae32ccf6aa3de3ed0066","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-07T00:50:08Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1744,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1699},{"venue":"polymarket","count":45}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1251,"polymarket":45,"total":1296},"last_updated":"2026-07-07T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":475426405.69,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":575152404.45,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":197518629.85,"polymarket_usd":95849394.13,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-07T00:50:08Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.332,"oi_contracts":31947627.32,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1975,"liquidity_usd":7536834.24,"volume_24h_usd":1460424.97},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":10.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.008,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.068,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.168,"polymarket":0.036},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.2,0.2,0.203,0.194,0.229,0.248,0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362,0.34],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.77,"oi_contracts":365073.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.14,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":994723.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.332,"oi_contracts":31947627.32,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.182,"oi_contracts":21572257.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1385,"liquidity_usd":9328413.6,"volume_24h_usd":3808844.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":7.35,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.057,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.075,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.018,"polymarket":-0.023},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.138,0.133,0.134,0.134,0.131,0.111,0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.73,"oi_contracts":291362.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.23,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.28,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":167975.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.182,"oi_contracts":21572257.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.167,"oi_contracts":29631616.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1335,"liquidity_usd":8122015.32,"volume_24h_usd":2852644.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":10.09,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.009,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.043,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.076,"polymarket":0.045},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.138,0.135,0.152,0.142,0.147,0.184,0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":886822.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.63,"oi_contracts":359587.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.85,"oi_contracts":224615.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.167,"oi_contracts":29631616.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.141,"oi_contracts":18975396.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1255,"liquidity_usd":8202039.69,"volume_24h_usd":1183072.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.46,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.43,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.059,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.046,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.036,"polymarket":0.013},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.123,0.104,0.104,0.098,0.1,0.101,0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.65,"oi_contracts":111023.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.33,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.26,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":150774.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.141,"oi_contracts":18975396.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0675,"liquidity_usd":6052229.96,"volume_24h_usd":2246029.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.033},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.07,0.093,0.084,0.099,0.095,0.099,0.066,0.068,0.064,0.062,0.065,0.062,0.066,0.067],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0565,"liquidity_usd":2093626.13,"volume_24h_usd":2189050.02},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.36,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565]}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.056,"oi_contracts":23880094.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0195,"liquidity_usd":4029250.4,"volume_24h_usd":2590050.95},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":8.14,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.036,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":-0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.022,0.029,0.029,0.024,0.021,0.018,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.018,0.017,0.017,0.059],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":334731.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":182993.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.056,"oi_contracts":23880094.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0555,"liquidity_usd":8126910.72,"volume_24h_usd":1003235.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.027},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555]}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0545,"liquidity_usd":2028399.23,"volume_24h_usd":1786298.38},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.35,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.015},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545]}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":56498222.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0355,"liquidity_usd":4600056.37,"volume_24h_usd":2700371.55},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":19.25,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.8,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.023,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.022,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.024},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.048,0.048,0.05,0.045,0.037,0.037,0.036,0.039,0.04,0.044,0.04,0.035,0.038,0.04],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":509220.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":691263.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":685412.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.24,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.2,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":56498222.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.033,"oi_contracts":22081101.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"liquidity_usd":4810613.6,"volume_24h_usd":2089595.87},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":7.52,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.84,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.005,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.014,"polymarket":-0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.017,0.018,0.018,0.017,0.016,0.026,0.026,0.028,0.028,0.026,0.027,0.025,0.032,0.034],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":92374.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":207639.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":278387.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.033,"oi_contracts":22081101.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.028,"oi_contracts":24598877.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"liquidity_usd":2365949.8,"volume_24h_usd":1357713.42},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":8.38,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.014,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.013,"polymarket":0.006},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.02,0.019,0.019,0.014,0.015,0.013,0.012,0.014,0.032,0.025,0.026,0.024,0.033,0.03],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":138989.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":91623.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.14,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.028,"oi_contracts":24598877.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0235,"liquidity_usd":1695216.34,"volume_24h_usd":2683112.46},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.29,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235]}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":19505042.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0105,"liquidity_usd":5914263.82,"volume_24h_usd":7744841.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.64,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.03,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.009},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.011,0.011,0.01,0.011,0.01,0.013,0.011,0.01,0.008,0.014,0.015,0.01,0.011,0.012],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":69989.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":69658.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":146931.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.27,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.44,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":19505042.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"liquidity_usd":9311699.22,"volume_24h_usd":1189387.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.018,0.022,0.018,0.032,0.026,0.035,0.034,0.034,0.037,0.05,0.054,0.053,0.048,0.059],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":18787464.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":4659527.73,"volume_24h_usd":933509.3},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.4,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.006},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.006,0.005,0.01,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.009,0.009,0.008,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.009,0.008],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":22643.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":40443.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":41221.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":18787464.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":10388421.77,"volume_24h_usd":934840.22},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055]}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":5129323.16,"volume_24h_usd":3684424.04},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.89,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.005},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":9406889.34,"volume_24h_usd":2604130.78},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.64,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":26065187.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":13269541.19,"volume_24h_usd":3414779.36},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":8.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.003,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":65336.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":53791.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":74560.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":26065187.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":8696479.92,"volume_24h_usd":1764458.32},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.51,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":11788829.69,"volume_24h_usd":1211866.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":20349927.41,"volume_24h_usd":996642.11},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.54,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":12479177.54,"volume_24h_usd":1076463.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.17,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]}},{"team":"South 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DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":22745343.45,"volume_24h_usd":1808131.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.95,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":17487887.72,"volume_24h_usd":2485109.2},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.04,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":6760589.47,"volume_24h_usd":1244562.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.18,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"Cape 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matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}