World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Norway	+4.2	+3.8	+4.2 pts ᴷ
England	+1.6	+1.6	+1.6 pts ᴷ
Argentina	+0.9	+1.5	+1.5 pts ᴾ
Mexico	+1.1	+0.7	+1.1 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.2	+0.9	+0.9 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Brazil	—	-6.4	−6.4 pts ᴾ
France	-2.2	-2.2	−2.2 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.1	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Morocco	-0.3	+0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.1	+0.0	−0.1 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Mexico	5.9%	4.2%	1.7 pts
Portugal	6.7%	5.8%	1.0 pts
USA	4.0%	3.2%	0.8 pts
Argentina	17.6%	18.2%	0.7 pts
Norway	5.9%	5.5%	0.4 pts
Morocco	3.0%	2.6%	0.3 pts
England	8.2%	8.4%	0.2 pts
France	34.0%	33.9%	0.2 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	34.0%	33.9%	−2.2 pts ᴷ
Argentina	17.6%	18.2%	+1.5 pts ᴾ
Spain	12.5%	12.7%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
England	8.2%	8.4%	+1.6 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.7%	5.8%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Norway	5.9%	5.5%	+4.2 pts ᴷ
Mexico	5.9%	4.2%	+1.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	—	—
Brazil	—	0.1%	−6.4 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	—	—