World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Norway	+4.2	+0.0	+4.2 pts ᴷ
England	+1.6	+0.0	+1.6 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+1.1	+0.0	+1.1 pts ᴷ
Argentina	+0.9	+0.0	+0.9 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	-2.2	+0.0	−2.2 pts ᴷ
Morocco	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.1	+0.0	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	-0.1	+0.0	−0.1 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	34.0%	19.8%	14.3 pts
Mexico	5.9%	1.2%	4.7 pts
England	8.2%	12.6%	4.3 pts
Argentina	17.6%	13.4%	4.2 pts
Norway	5.9%	1.9%	3.9 pts
Colombia	3.4%	1.5%	2.0 pts
Spain	12.5%	13.9%	1.4 pts
Morocco	3.0%	2.1%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	34.0%	19.8%	−2.2 pts ᴷ
Argentina	17.6%	13.4%	+0.9 pts ᴷ
Spain	12.5%	13.9%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
England	8.2%	12.6%	+1.6 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.7%	6.8%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Norway	5.9%	1.9%	+4.2 pts ᴷ
Mexico	5.9%	1.2%	+1.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	5.7%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Brazil	—	5.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	5.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ