{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-06","as_of":"2026-07-06T00:50:12Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-06.json","source_sha256":"1a99086a6aab6dcd24066f52914038bf5ca145c5820ecddf40669a7aa4252cda","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-06T00:50:12Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":null,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1912},{"venue":"polymarket","count":null}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1363,"polymarket":null,"total":null},"last_updated":"2026-07-05T23:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":532902591.46,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":null,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":137103088.02,"polymarket_usd":null,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-06T00:50:12Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":31195726.32,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3385,"liquidity_usd":3112129.6,"volume_24h_usd":1005899.22},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":8.55,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.95,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.022,"polymarket":-0.022},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.096,"polymarket":0.109},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.178,"polymarket":0.179},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.194,0.2,0.2,0.203,0.194,0.229,0.248,0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338,0.334,0.362],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.78,"oi_contracts":376754.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.26,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":958830.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":31195726.32,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.176,"oi_contracts":29009771.87,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1825,"liquidity_usd":3693300.59,"volume_24h_usd":1927470.23},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":7.95,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":7.07,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":-0.024},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.084,"polymarket":0.094},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.119,0.138,0.135,0.152,0.142,0.147,0.184,0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":865903.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.63,"oi_contracts":355457.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.85,"oi_contracts":226821.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.176,"oi_contracts":29009771.87,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.125,"oi_contracts":20694819.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1265,"liquidity_usd":3740669.87,"volume_24h_usd":1076392.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.67,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":7.16,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.021,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":-0.033},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.142,0.138,0.133,0.134,0.134,0.131,0.111,0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.5,"oi_contracts":252373.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":156019.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.67,"oi_contracts":147682.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.125,"oi_contracts":20694819.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.082,"oi_contracts":18390674.74,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.084,"liquidity_usd":1400201.21,"volume_24h_usd":3420260.45},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.68,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.016,"polymarket":0.0155},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.018,"polymarket":-0.0185},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.023,"polymarket":-0.0285},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.128,0.123,0.104,0.104,0.098,0.1,0.101,0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":93874.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":127525.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.49,"oi_contracts":235058.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.082,"oi_contracts":18390674.74,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.067,"oi_contracts":34680858.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0575,"liquidity_usd":2600536.4,"volume_24h_usd":2112310.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":9.51,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.98,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.029,"polymarket":-0.039},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.068,0.07,0.093,0.084,0.099,0.095,0.099,0.066,0.068,0.064,0.062,0.065,0.062,0.066],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":302686.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":99908.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":241049.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.067,"oi_contracts":34680858.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.059,"oi_contracts":21482822.78,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0545,"liquidity_usd":1435810.84,"volume_24h_usd":8527108.2},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.89,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.75,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.042,"polymarket":0.038},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.039,"polymarket":0.035},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.033,"polymarket":0.029},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.023,0.022,0.029,0.029,0.024,0.021,0.018,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.018,0.017,0.017],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":302440.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":110114.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.32,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.34,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.059,"oi_contracts":21482822.78,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.059,"oi_contracts":54413664.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0415,"liquidity_usd":1529966.67,"volume_24h_usd":5255031.69},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":14.92,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.93,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.011,"polymarket":0.007},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.025,"polymarket":0.03},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":0.029},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.018,0.018,0.022,0.018,0.032,0.026,0.035,0.034,0.034,0.037,0.05,0.054,0.053,0.048],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":641337.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.25,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":1076832.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":476451.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.059,"oi_contracts":54413664.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":null,"polymarket":null,"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":null,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":6502733.73,"volume_24h_usd":4944350.23},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":12.44,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.064},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.059},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.082},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.057,0.057,0.05,0.057,0.058,0.061,0.065,0.061,0.072,0.066,0.065,0.066,0.063,0.065],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":null,"polymarket":null,"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":null,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":52190914.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0325,"liquidity_usd":1620792.27,"volume_24h_usd":4154942.24},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":14.31,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.1,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.009},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.009},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.023,"polymarket":0.021},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.048,0.048,0.048,0.05,0.045,0.037,0.037,0.036,0.039,0.04,0.044,0.04,0.035,0.038],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":455169.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":569054.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":628562.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":52190914.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.034,"oi_contracts":21513765.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0335,"liquidity_usd":1110037.1,"volume_24h_usd":1328582.6},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.9,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.12,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.008,"polymarket":0.007},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.015,"polymarket":0.016},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.016,0.017,0.018,0.018,0.017,0.016,0.026,0.026,0.028,0.028,0.026,0.027,0.025,0.032],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":80447.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":193076.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":281833.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.034,"oi_contracts":21513765.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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