World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+2.8	+0.0	+2.8 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+0.9	+0.0	+0.9 pts ᴷ
Colombia	+0.7	+0.0	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.4	+0.0	+0.4 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	-5.1	+0.0	−5.1 pts ᴷ
England	-0.7	+0.0	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Mexico	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	36.2%	19.8%	16.4 pts
England	6.6%	12.6%	5.9 pts
Mexico	4.8%	1.2%	3.6 pts
Argentina	16.7%	13.4%	3.4 pts
Colombia	3.2%	1.5%	1.8 pts
Spain	12.6%	13.9%	1.3 pts
Morocco	3.3%	2.1%	1.2 pts
Brazil	6.5%	5.5%	1.0 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	36.2%	19.8%	+2.8 pts ᴷ
Argentina	16.7%	13.4%	−5.1 pts ᴷ
Spain	12.6%	13.9%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
England	6.6%	12.6%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.6%	6.8%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.5%	5.5%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	5.7%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	5.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Mexico	4.8%	1.2%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
USA	3.8%	3.5%	+0.3 pts ᴷ