World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+2.8	-0.7	+2.8 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+0.9	+0.0	+0.9 pts ᴷ
Colombia	+0.7	+0.5	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.4	+0.1	+0.4 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.3	-0.2	+0.3 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	-5.1	-1.3	−5.1 pts ᴷ
England	-0.7	-0.1	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Mexico	-0.5	+0.1	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Brazil	+0.2	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Norway	+0.0	-0.1	−0.1 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	3.8%	2.4%	1.4 pts
Mexico	4.8%	3.5%	1.3 pts
Morocco	3.3%	2.5%	0.8 pts
Portugal	6.6%	6.0%	0.6 pts
England	6.6%	6.9%	0.3 pts
France	36.2%	36.0%	0.2 pts
Belgium	1.1%	1.2%	0.2 pts
Egypt	0.3%	0.1%	0.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	36.2%	36.0%	+2.8 pts ᴷ
Argentina	16.7%	16.8%	−5.1 pts ᴷ
Spain	12.6%	12.7%	+0.2 pts ᴾ
England	6.6%	6.9%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.6%	6.0%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.5%	6.5%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Germany	—	—	—
Netherlands	—	—	—
Mexico	4.8%	3.5%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
USA	3.8%	2.4%	+0.3 pts ᴷ