World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · July 4, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-07-04 00:50:12 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
| Team | Kalshi Δ | Polymarket Δ | Largest move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | +3.4 | +0.0 | +3.4 pts ᴷ |
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 33.4% | 19.8% | 13.7 pts |
| Argentina | 21.8% | 13.4% | 8.4 pts |
| England | 7.3% | 12.6% | 5.3 pts |
| Mexico | 5.3% | 1.2% | 4.0 pts |
| Spain | 12.5% | 13.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Colombia | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Brazil | 6.3% | 5.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Portugal | 6.2% | 6.8% | 0.6 pts |
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 33.4% | 19.8% | −0.4 pts ᴷ |
| Argentina | 21.8% | 13.4% | +3.4 pts ᴷ |
| Spain | 12.5% | 13.9% | −0.4 pts ᴷ |
| England | 7.3% | 12.6% | −0.2 pts ᴷ |
| Portugal | 6.2% | 6.8% | −0.3 pts ᴷ |
| Brazil | 6.3% | 5.5% | −0.3 pts ᴷ |
| Germany | — | 5.7% | +0.0 pts ᴾ |
| Netherlands | — | 5.5% | +0.0 pts ᴾ |
| Mexico | 5.3% | 1.2% | −0.1 pts ᴷ |
| USA | 3.5% | 3.5% | −0.5 pts ᴷ |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-07-04 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.