World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+3.4	-0.7	+3.4 pts ᴷ
France	-0.4	+2.5	+2.5 pts ᴾ
Portugal	-0.3	+1.6	+1.6 pts ᴾ
Switzerland	+0.0	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Egypt	+0.0	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	-0.4	-1.1	−1.1 pts ᴾ
England	-0.2	-0.7	−0.7 pts ᴾ
USA	-0.5	-0.1	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Belgium	-0.5	-0.3	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Brazil	-0.3	+0.2	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Argentina	21.8%	18.1%	3.8 pts
France	33.4%	36.8%	3.3 pts
Mexico	5.3%	3.4%	1.9 pts
USA	3.5%	2.5%	1.0 pts
Brazil	6.3%	6.8%	0.5 pts
Switzerland	0.6%	0.9%	0.3 pts
England	7.3%	7.0%	0.3 pts
Portugal	6.2%	5.9%	0.3 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	33.4%	36.8%	+2.5 pts ᴾ
Argentina	21.8%	18.1%	+3.4 pts ᴷ
Spain	12.5%	12.4%	−1.1 pts ᴾ
England	7.3%	7.0%	−0.7 pts ᴾ
Portugal	6.2%	5.9%	+1.6 pts ᴾ
Brazil	6.3%	6.8%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	—	—
Netherlands	—	—	—
Mexico	5.3%	3.4%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
USA	3.5%	2.5%	−0.5 pts ᴷ