World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	+3.6	+0.0	+3.6 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+0.4	+0.0	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Brazil	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Colombia	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	-1.3	+0.0	−1.3 pts ᴷ
England	-0.7	+0.0	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Argentina	-0.6	+0.0	−0.6 pts ᴷ
USA	-0.4	+0.0	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Norway	-0.2	+0.0	−0.2 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	33.8%	19.8%	14.1 pts
England	7.5%	12.6%	5.1 pts
Argentina	18.4%	13.4%	5.0 pts
Mexico	5.4%	1.2%	4.1 pts
Colombia	2.7%	1.5%	1.2 pts
Brazil	6.6%	5.5%	1.1 pts
Spain	12.9%	13.9%	1.0 pts
USA	4.0%	3.5%	0.5 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	33.8%	19.8%	−1.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	18.4%	13.4%	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Spain	12.9%	13.9%	+3.6 pts ᴷ
England	7.5%	12.6%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.5%	6.8%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.6%	5.5%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	5.7%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	5.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Mexico	5.4%	1.2%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
USA	4.0%	3.5%	−0.4 pts ᴷ