World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	+3.6	+3.5	+3.6 pts ᴷ
Argentina	-0.6	+0.7	+0.7 pts ᴾ
Mexico	+0.4	+0.0	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	+0.1	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	-1.3	-1.1	−1.3 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.3	-1.2	−1.2 pts ᴾ
England	-0.7	-0.5	−0.7 pts ᴷ
USA	-0.4	-0.1	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Norway	-0.2	-0.4	−0.4 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Portugal	6.5%	4.3%	2.2 pts
Mexico	5.4%	3.2%	2.1 pts
USA	4.0%	2.6%	1.4 pts
Spain	12.9%	13.5%	0.6 pts
France	33.8%	34.2%	0.5 pts
Argentina	18.4%	18.8%	0.4 pts
Colombia	2.7%	2.5%	0.2 pts
Morocco	2.6%	2.4%	0.2 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	33.8%	34.2%	−1.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	18.4%	18.8%	+0.7 pts ᴾ
Spain	12.9%	13.5%	+3.6 pts ᴷ
England	7.5%	7.6%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.5%	4.3%	−1.2 pts ᴾ
Brazil	6.6%	6.6%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	—	—
Netherlands	—	—	—
Mexico	5.4%	3.2%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
USA	4.0%	2.6%	−0.4 pts ᴷ