{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-04","as_of":"2026-07-04T00:50:12Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-04.json","source_sha256":"94b3b694c6fb7c86398222079ec0b67a51294806e65bf291cae5d21466ade673","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-04T00:50:12Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":2326,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":2281},{"venue":"polymarket","count":45}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1729,"polymarket":45,"total":1774},"last_updated":"2026-07-03T22:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":598428752.18,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":575152404.45,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":161931618.23,"polymarket_usd":95849394.13,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-04T00:50:12Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.334,"oi_contracts":29726588.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1975,"liquidity_usd":7536834.24,"volume_24h_usd":1460424.97},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.93,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.105,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.171,"polymarket":0.027},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.185,0.187,0.194,0.2,0.2,0.203,0.194,0.229,0.248,0.244,0.264,0.338,0.351,0.338],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.78,"oi_contracts":351357.74,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.29,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.9,"oi_contracts":235280.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.24,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":843612.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.2,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.334,"oi_contracts":29726588.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.218,"oi_contracts":27791151.33,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1335,"liquidity_usd":8122015.32,"volume_24h_usd":2852644.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.48,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.034,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.071,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.128,"polymarket":0.044},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.108,0.109,0.119,0.138,0.135,0.152,0.142,0.147,0.184,0.216,0.21,0.193,0.19,0.184],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.97,"oi_contracts":95967.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":822564.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.69,"oi_contracts":324273.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.89,"oi_contracts":242474.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.218,"oi_contracts":27791151.33,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.125,"oi_contracts":19505136.41,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1385,"liquidity_usd":9328413.6,"volume_24h_usd":3808844.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.55,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.042,"polymarket":-0.021},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.133,0.123,0.142,0.138,0.133,0.134,0.134,0.131,0.111,0.104,0.107,0.104,0.093,0.129],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":210733.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":148013.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.63,"oi_contracts":146318.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.125,"oi_contracts":19505136.41,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.073,"oi_contracts":16645899.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1255,"liquidity_usd":8202039.69,"volume_24h_usd":1183072.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.43,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.027,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.036,"polymarket":0.011},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.128,0.129,0.128,0.123,0.104,0.104,0.098,0.1,0.101,0.1,0.095,0.092,0.082,0.075],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":87265.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":121865.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.51,"oi_contracts":173411.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.073,"oi_contracts":16645899.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.062,"oi_contracts":31892733.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0675,"liquidity_usd":6052229.96,"volume_24h_usd":2246029.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":7.43,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.033,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.033,"polymarket":-0.028},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.067,0.067,0.068,0.07,0.093,0.084,0.099,0.095,0.099,0.066,0.068,0.064,0.062,0.065],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":270242.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":89852.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":242412.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.062,"oi_contracts":31892733.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.063,"oi_contracts":18511443.19,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0555,"liquidity_usd":8126910.72,"volume_24h_usd":1003235.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.31,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.022,"polymarket":-0.027},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.068,0.062,0.057,0.057,0.05,0.057,0.058,0.061,0.065,0.061,0.072,0.066,0.065,0.066],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.65,"oi_contracts":142033.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":172541.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":128187.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.063,"oi_contracts":18511443.19,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0565,"liquidity_usd":2093626.13,"volume_24h_usd":2189050.02},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.36,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0605,0.0565,0.0535,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565,0.0565]}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0545,"liquidity_usd":2028399.23,"volume_24h_usd":1786298.38},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.35,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.015},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0395,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545,0.0545]}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.053,"oi_contracts":48123908.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"liquidity_usd":9311699.22,"volume_24h_usd":1189387.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":11.22,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.027,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.019,0.022,0.018,0.018,0.022,0.018,0.032,0.026,0.035,0.034,0.034,0.037,0.05,0.054],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.5,"oi_contracts":576527.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.22,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":971999.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":422830.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.053,"oi_contracts":48123908.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.035,"oi_contracts":48331894.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0355,"liquidity_usd":4600056.37,"volume_24h_usd":2700371.55},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":11.26,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.8,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.021,"polymarket":0.024},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.051,0.049,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.05,0.045,0.037,0.037,0.036,0.039,0.04,0.044,0.04],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":441748.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":489871.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.5,"oi_contracts":609971.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.035,"oi_contracts":48331894.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.025,"oi_contracts":19038615.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"liquidity_usd":4810613.6,"volume_24h_usd":2089595.87},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.44,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.84,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.005,"polymarket":-0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.017,0.019,0.016,0.017,0.018,0.018,0.017,0.016,0.026,0.026,0.028,0.028,0.026,0.027],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.81,"oi_contracts":112590.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.21,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":60443.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":156717.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":250410.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.23,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.025,"oi_contracts":19038615.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.024,"oi_contracts":20892318.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"liquidity_usd":2365949.8,"volume_24h_usd":1357713.42},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.87,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":0.006},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.028,0.022,0.023,0.02,0.019,0.019,0.014,0.015,0.013,0.012,0.014,0.032,0.025,0.026],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":92015.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":80851.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.73,"oi_contracts":86533.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.46,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.024,"oi_contracts":20892318.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0235,"liquidity_usd":1695216.34,"volume_24h_usd":2683112.46},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.29,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.006},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0135,0.0135,0.0215,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235]}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":18260887.25,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0195,"liquidity_usd":4029250.4,"volume_24h_usd":2590050.95},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.26,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.009,"polymarket":-0.006},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.027,0.027,0.023,0.022,0.029,0.029,0.024,0.021,0.018,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.018],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":98575.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":76397.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":64915.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":18260887.25,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":15104991.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0105,"liquidity_usd":5914263.82,"volume_24h_usd":7744841.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.52,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.03,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":-0.009},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.016,0.016,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.01,0.011,0.01,0.013,0.011,0.01,0.008,0.014,0.015],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":46026.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":39047.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.48,"oi_contracts":112524.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.26,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":15104991.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":15951130.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":4659527.73,"volume_24h_usd":933509.3},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.72,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.009,0.009,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.01,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.009,0.009,0.008,0.006,0.006],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":19650.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":33190.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":32558.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":15951130.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":10388421.77,"volume_24h_usd":934840.22},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055]}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":5129323.16,"volume_24h_usd":3684424.04},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.89,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.004},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.007,0.005,0.004,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.005,0.005,0.003,0.004,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":9406889.34,"volume_24h_usd":2604130.78},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.64,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":8696479.92,"volume_24h_usd":1764458.32},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.51,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":16487042.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":11788829.69,"volume_24h_usd":1211866.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.84,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.005,0.005,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.002,0.003,0.002,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":14024.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":22471.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":41840.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":16487042.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":20349927.41,"volume_24h_usd":996642.11},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.54,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":18252543.19,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":13269541.19,"volume_24h_usd":3414779.36},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.25,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":13192.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":51698.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":27792.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":18252543.19,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":12479177.54,"volume_24h_usd":1076463.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.17,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":8171595.94,"volume_24h_usd":3798944.45},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.42,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":19826887.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":11559335.57,"volume_24h_usd":1123355.56},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.62,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.01,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.003,0.004,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":32825.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":14871.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":17857.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":19826887.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":8916571.28,"volume_24h_usd":7957988.03},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.55,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.01},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0055,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":22745343.45,"volume_24h_usd":1808131.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.95,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":17212192.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":17487887.72,"volume_24h_usd":2485109.2},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.01,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.04,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8049.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":28949.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":20488.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.17,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":72286.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":17212192.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":6760589.47,"volume_24h_usd":1244562.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.18,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0035,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":27507556.19,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":2191854.5,"volume_24h_usd":20723374.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.41,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.38,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":140311.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":60981.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":81863.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":29943.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":27507556.19,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.54,"oi_contracts":931721.96,"volume_24h_contracts":57276.28,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":968671.77,"volume_24h_contracts":40559.17,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry 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