World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+7.4	+6.6	+7.4 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.1	+0.7	+0.7 pts ᴾ
Mexico	+0.3	+0.7	+0.7 pts ᴾ
Colombia	+0.0	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	-1.7	-1.5	−1.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.3	-0.8	−0.8 pts ᴾ
Portugal	-0.4	-0.6	−0.6 pts ᴾ
Brazil	-0.6	+0.0	−0.6 pts ᴷ
England	-0.3	-0.4	−0.4 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Mexico	3.7%	1.9%	1.7 pts
Portugal	6.4%	5.2%	1.2 pts
USA	4.0%	3.0%	1.0 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Argentina	19.3%	18.6%	0.8 pts
France	33.8%	33.1%	0.7 pts
England	9.2%	9.8%	0.6 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	33.8%	33.1%	+7.4 pts ᴷ
Argentina	19.3%	18.6%	−1.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	10.4%	10.5%	−0.8 pts ᴾ
England	9.2%	9.8%	−0.4 pts ᴾ
Portugal	6.4%	5.2%	−0.6 pts ᴾ
Brazil	6.6%	7.0%	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	—	—
Netherlands	—	—	—
USA	4.0%	3.0%	+0.7 pts ᴾ
Mexico	3.7%	1.9%	+0.7 pts ᴾ