World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+7.4	+0.0	+7.4 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+1.8	+0.0	+1.8 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Paraguay	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	-1.7	+0.0	−1.7 pts ᴷ
Brazil	-0.6	+0.0	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Portugal	-0.4	+0.0	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ
England	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	33.8%	19.8%	14.1 pts
Argentina	19.3%	13.4%	5.9 pts
Spain	10.4%	13.9%	3.5 pts
England	9.2%	12.6%	3.4 pts
Mexico	3.7%	1.2%	2.4 pts
Colombia	2.8%	1.5%	1.4 pts
Brazil	6.6%	5.5%	1.1 pts
Morocco	3.2%	2.1%	1.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	33.8%	19.8%	+7.4 pts ᴷ
Argentina	19.3%	13.4%	−1.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	10.4%	13.9%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
England	9.2%	12.6%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.4%	6.8%	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.6%	5.5%	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	5.7%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	5.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
USA	4.0%	3.5%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Mexico	3.7%	1.2%	+0.3 pts ᴷ