{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-01","as_of":"2026-07-01T00:50:12Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-01.json","source_sha256":"33774ba746fdcbe6c924933a95ef9db509185c6b3f1f89d27879f245bd3c1823","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-01T00:50:12Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":2410,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":2365},{"venue":"polymarket","count":45}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1788,"polymarket":45,"total":1833},"last_updated":"2026-07-01T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":545855181.42,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":575152404.45,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":112253422.18,"polymarket_usd":95849394.13,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-01T00:50:12Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.338,"oi_contracts":25930112.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1975,"liquidity_usd":7536834.24,"volume_24h_usd":1460424.97},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.85,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.074,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.138,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.162,"polymarket":0.027},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.186,0.18,0.187,0.185,0.187,0.194,0.2,0.2,0.203,0.194,0.229,0.248,0.244,0.264],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.76,"oi_contracts":329340.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.28,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.9,"oi_contracts":241537.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.25,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":673073.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.338,"oi_contracts":25930112.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.193,"oi_contracts":23438048.38,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1335,"liquidity_usd":8122015.32,"volume_24h_usd":2852644.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.29,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.017,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.058,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.103,"polymarket":0.044},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.091,0.115,0.108,0.108,0.109,0.119,0.138,0.135,0.152,0.142,0.147,0.184,0.216,0.21],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.92,"oi_contracts":79757.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":655403.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":278934.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.83,"oi_contracts":219329.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.14,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.193,"oi_contracts":23438048.38,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.104,"oi_contracts":16281764.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1385,"liquidity_usd":9328413.6,"volume_24h_usd":3808844.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.67,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.029,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.067,"polymarket":-0.031},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.144,0.136,0.134,0.133,0.123,0.142,0.138,0.133,0.134,0.134,0.131,0.111,0.104,0.107],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.45,"oi_contracts":163422.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":101953.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":120027.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.86,"oi_contracts":39541.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.104,"oi_contracts":16281764.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.092,"oi_contracts":14447438.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1255,"liquidity_usd":8202039.69,"volume_24h_usd":1183072.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.26,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.43,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.012,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.022,"polymarket":0.014},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.104,0.129,0.131,0.128,0.129,0.128,0.123,0.104,0.104,0.098,0.1,0.101,0.1,0.095],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":84339.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":112510.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.57,"oi_contracts":99787.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.86,"oi_contracts":32527.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.092,"oi_contracts":14447438.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.064,"oi_contracts":26497709.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0675,"liquidity_usd":6052229.96,"volume_24h_usd":2246029.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.98,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.029,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":-0.026},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.112,0.082,0.08,0.067,0.067,0.068,0.07,0.093,0.084,0.099,0.095,0.099,0.066,0.068],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":189322.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.22,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":203600.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":70828.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.69,"oi_contracts":42970.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.064,"oi_contracts":26497709.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.066,"oi_contracts":16031751.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0555,"liquidity_usd":8126910.72,"volume_24h_usd":1003235.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.62,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.016,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.024,"polymarket":-0.031},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.067,0.068,0.068,0.068,0.062,0.057,0.057,0.05,0.057,0.058,0.061,0.065,0.061,0.072],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.62,"oi_contracts":140386.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":163403.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":95771.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.066,"oi_contracts":16031751.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0565,"liquidity_usd":2093626.13,"volume_24h_usd":2189050.02},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.36,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.062,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.059,0.057,0.053,0.052,0.053,0.048,0.046,0.039,0.037,0.001],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0545,"liquidity_usd":2028399.23,"volume_24h_usd":1786298.38},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.35,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.018},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.045,0.044,0.043,0.041,0.076,0.071,0.066,0.071,0.068,0.083,0.063,0.052,0.059,0.061],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":42356423.36,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0355,"liquidity_usd":4600056.37,"volume_24h_usd":2700371.55},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":9.56,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.8,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.008,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.025,"polymarket":0.024},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.035,0.039,0.036,0.051,0.049,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.05,0.045,0.037,0.037,0.036,0.039],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":361063.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.84,"oi_contracts":336207.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.48,"oi_contracts":531475.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":406277.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":42356423.36,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.037,"oi_contracts":35710552.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"liquidity_usd":9311699.22,"volume_24h_usd":1189387.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":8.06,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.015,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.023,"polymarket":0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.017,0.018,0.017,0.019,0.022,0.018,0.018,0.022,0.018,0.032,0.026,0.035,0.034,0.034],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.63,"oi_contracts":196536.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":333071.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":574493.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":290263.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.037,"oi_contracts":35710552.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.032,"oi_contracts":18241484.27,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"liquidity_usd":2365949.8,"volume_24h_usd":1357713.42},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.12,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.018,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.013,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.017,"polymarket":0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.023,0.021,0.02,0.028,0.022,0.023,0.02,0.019,0.019,0.014,0.015,0.013,0.012,0.014],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":79976.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":68502.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.14,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.73,"oi_contracts":80514.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.4,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.45,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.032,"oi_contracts":18241484.27,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.028,"oi_contracts":16533712.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"liquidity_usd":4810613.6,"volume_24h_usd":2089595.87},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.73,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.84,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.008,"polymarket":-0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.017,0.018,0.016,0.017,0.019,0.016,0.017,0.018,0.018,0.017,0.016,0.026,0.026,0.028],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.78,"oi_contracts":110686.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":135647.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":205743.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.21,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":46093.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.028,"oi_contracts":16533712.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0235,"liquidity_usd":1695216.34,"volume_24h_usd":2683112.46},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.29,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.006},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0165,0.0165,0.0165,0.0135,0.0135,0.0215,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235,0.0235]}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":15655475.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0195,"liquidity_usd":4029250.4,"volume_24h_usd":2590050.95},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.53,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.009,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.006},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.029,0.026,0.026,0.027,0.027,0.023,0.022,0.029,0.029,0.024,0.021,0.018,0.02,0.02],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":74118.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":57721.66,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":86584.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":15655475.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":12323225.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0105,"liquidity_usd":5914263.82,"volume_24h_usd":7744841.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.78,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.03,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.013,"polymarket":-0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.018,0.018,0.017,0.016,0.016,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.01,0.011,0.01,0.013,0.011,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":34775.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":34483.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":86734.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":44787.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":12323225.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":519620.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":22745343.45,"volume_24h_usd":1808131.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.12,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.95,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":8039.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":17602.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":38399.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":13281.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":519620.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":749084.89,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":12599050.64,"volume_24h_usd":114121.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.17,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.19,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":22672.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":17374.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":18238.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":64606.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":749084.89,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":12333224.73,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":4659527.73,"volume_24h_usd":933509.3},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.78,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.005},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.012,0.009,0.009,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.01,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.009,0.009],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":15878.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":26509.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":23834.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.65,"oi_contracts":38303.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":12333224.73,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":13654939.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":10388421.77,"volume_24h_usd":934840.22},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.08,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.006,0.005,0.006,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.006,0.002,0.004,0.002,0.006,0.004,0.004,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":49037.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":31610.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":24102.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":25661.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":13654939.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":17660418.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":6760589.47,"volume_24h_usd":1244562.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.99,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.18,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.004,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.006,0.007,0.006,0.005,0.005],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":90212.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":89008.57,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.25,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":25688.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":47994.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":17660418.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":15588135.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":5129323.16,"volume_24h_usd":3684424.04},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.52,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.89,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.007,"polymarket":-0.004},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.007,0.007,0.005,0.004,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.005,0.005,0.003,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":20260.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":22749.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":22401.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":27244.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":15588135.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":9406889.34,"volume_24h_usd":2604130.78},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.64,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.006,0.006,0.005,0.005,0.003,0.005,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":16326228.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":11559335.57,"volume_24h_usd":1123355.56},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.68,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.01,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":15479.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":11096.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":15382.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":16326228.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":13406657.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":8696479.92,"volume_24h_usd":1764458.32},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.03,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.51,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":12290.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":6533.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":3938.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":53916.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":13406657.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":14993051.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":11788829.69,"volume_24h_usd":1211866.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.38,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.002,0.003,0.002,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":8100.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":20739.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":35993.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":14993051.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":12833378.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":20349927.41,"volume_24h_usd":996642.11},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.9,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.54,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.004,0.004,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":11201.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8677.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":38693.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":14189.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":12833378.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":12916936.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":13269541.19,"volume_24h_usd":3414779.36},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.91,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":5675.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":47910.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.57,"oi_contracts":129501.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":10853.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":12916936.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":12479177.54,"volume_24h_usd":1076463.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.17,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.005,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.002,0.002,0.003,0.003,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":8171595.94,"volume_24h_usd":3798944.45},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.42,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":15175976.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":16572770.58,"volume_24h_usd":211080.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.42,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.88,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":23071.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":2407.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":11377.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1461.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":15175976.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":8916571.28,"volume_24h_usd":7957988.03},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.55,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.009},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0065,0.0065,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":13637659.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":17487887.72,"volume_24h_usd":2485109.2},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.08,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.04,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":24704.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":6919.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":54546.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":3866.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":13637659.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":19921512.27,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":2191854.5,"volume_24h_usd":20723374.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.5,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.38,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":30912.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":64853.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":17962.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":122814.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":19921512.27,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":15598421.04,"volume_24h_usd":1023335.91},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.71,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":29038276.0,"volume_24h_usd":190960.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":28105177.69,"volume_24h_usd":30870.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.89,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":24934838.94,"volume_24h_usd":10000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.34,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":30302890.52,"volume_24h_usd":4000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.27,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Qatar","slug":"qatar","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":28295593.46,"volume_24h_usd":4000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.92,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Uzbekistan","slug":"uzbekistan","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":25617642.37,"volume_24h_usd":3000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.45,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":30410813.3,"volume_24h_usd":5002.5},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.29,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":11633256.9,"volume_24h_usd":1077125.33},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":29095386.79,"volume_24h_usd":251940.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.06,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":17362880.36,"volume_24h_usd":37195.45},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":17366591.74,"volume_24h_usd":239510.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":856314.5,"volume_24h_contracts":32247.69,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":856499.97,"volume_24h_contracts":97373.78,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.22,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Cody Gakpo","slug":"cody-gakpo","team":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":167036.38,"volume_24h_contracts":1136.3,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Erling Haaland","slug":"erling-haaland","team":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":657224.29,"volume_24h_contracts":105140.28,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Vinicius Junior","slug":"vinicius-junior","team":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":336968.79,"volume_24h_contracts":17594.91,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry Kane","slug":"harry-kane","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":450929.06,"volume_24h_contracts":20071.95,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ousmane Dembele","slug":"ousmane-dembele","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":479736.81,"volume_24h_contracts":86718.6,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Michael Olise","slug":"michael-olise","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":260593.09,"volume_24h_contracts":181.42,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Rodrygo","slug":"rodrygo","team":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3214.66,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bruno Fernandes","slug":"bruno-fernandes","team":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":166753.22,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Christian Pulisic","slug":"christian-pulisic","team":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":214339.0,"volume_24h_contracts":280.54,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Folarin Balogun","slug":"folarin-balogun","team":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":173752.59,"volume_24h_contracts":3219.72,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Neymar","slug":"neymar","team":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":38498.42,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ferran Torres","slug":"ferran-torres","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":353548.12,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Randal Kolo Muani","slug":"randal-kolo-muani","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":468.0,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Mohamed Salah","slug":"mohamed-salah","team":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":96791.32,"volume_24h_contracts":187.03,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Richarlison","slug":"richarlison","team":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7508.49,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Darwin Nunez","slug":"darwin-nunez","team":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":215752.11,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Jude Bellingham","slug":"jude-bellingham","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":9417.13,"volume_24h_contracts":8290.54,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Alvaro Morata","slug":"alvaro-morata","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7726.06,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bradley Barcola","slug":"bradley-barcola","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":659.0,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Raphinha","slug":"raphinha","team":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":111422.23,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Scott McTominay","slug":"scott-mctominay","team":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":9605.05,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Son Heung-min","slug":"son-heung-min","team":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":21686.55,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lamine Yamal","slug":"lamine-yamal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":386207.39,"volume_24h_contracts":8126.54,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Mikel Oyarzabal","slug":"mikel-oyarzabal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":292473.0,"volume_24h_contracts":16166.26,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Romelu Lukaku","slug":"romelu-lukaku","team":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":103514.21,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Viktor Gyökeres","slug":"viktor-gyokeres","team":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":12243.13,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Cristiano Ronaldo","slug":"cristiano-ronaldo","team":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":623742.41,"volume_24h_contracts":40677.3,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Igor Thiago","slug":"igor-thiago","team":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":19375.59,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Nick Woltemade","slug":"nick-woltemade","team":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":150745.28,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Deniz Undav","slug":"deniz-undav","team":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":81298.54,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bukayo Saka","slug":"bukayo-saka","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":134893.18,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Memphis Depay","slug":"memphis-depay","team":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":49646.02,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Julian Alvarez","slug":"julian-alvarez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":188990.41,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Luis Diaz","slug":"luis-diaz","team":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":293268.16,"volume_24h_contracts":2150.93,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Matheus Cunha","slug":"matheus-cunha","team":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":125365.8,"volume_24h_contracts":500.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lautaro Martinez","slug":"lautaro-martinez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":134061.84,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}}],"players_history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true},"players_note":"Top Scorer (most-goals) ladder: per-player implied 'yes' price for leading the 2026 World Cup in goals — Kalshi's KXWCGOALLEADER tournament markets and Polymarket's equivalent top-scorer markets, resolved through the curated wc_players.json registry (allowlist; explicit aliases only, no fuzzy matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}