World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+1.3	+2.2	+2.2 pts ᴾ
Mexico	+1.3	+1.3	+1.3 pts ᴷ
Belgium	+0.6	+0.3	+0.6 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.4	-0.3	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Portugal	-0.2	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	-1.0	-1.6	−1.6 pts ᴾ
Spain	-1.1	-0.5	−1.1 pts ᴷ
Morocco	-0.7	-0.8	−0.8 pts ᴾ
Brazil	-0.1	-0.6	−0.6 pts ᴾ
Argentina	-0.3	-0.5	−0.5 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Mexico	5.0%	3.2%	1.8 pts
USA	4.4%	2.8%	1.6 pts
Argentina	19.0%	18.1%	1.0 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Spain	9.3%	10.1%	0.8 pts
Portugal	6.2%	5.5%	0.6 pts
France	35.1%	35.4%	0.3 pts
Norway	2.0%	2.2%	0.2 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	35.1%	35.4%	+2.2 pts ᴾ
Argentina	19.0%	18.1%	−0.5 pts ᴾ
Spain	9.3%	10.1%	−1.1 pts ᴷ
England	8.2%	8.2%	−1.6 pts ᴾ
Portugal	6.2%	5.5%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Brazil	6.5%	6.5%	−0.6 pts ᴾ
Germany	—	—	—
Netherlands	—	—	—
Mexico	5.0%	3.2%	+1.3 pts ᴷ
USA	4.4%	2.8%	+0.4 pts ᴷ