World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+1.3	+0.0	+1.3 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+1.3	+0.0	+1.3 pts ᴷ
Belgium	+0.6	+0.0	+0.6 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.4	+0.0	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Ghana	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	-1.1	+0.0	−1.1 pts ᴷ
England	-1.0	+0.0	−1.0 pts ᴷ
Morocco	-0.7	+0.0	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Argentina	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Senegal	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	35.1%	19.8%	15.3 pts
Argentina	19.0%	13.4%	5.6 pts
Spain	9.3%	13.9%	4.6 pts
England	8.2%	12.6%	4.3 pts
Mexico	5.0%	1.2%	3.8 pts
Colombia	2.6%	1.5%	1.1 pts
Brazil	6.5%	5.5%	1.0 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	35.1%	19.8%	+1.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	19.0%	13.4%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Spain	9.3%	13.9%	−1.1 pts ᴷ
England	8.2%	12.6%	−1.0 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.2%	6.8%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.5%	5.5%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	—	5.7%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	5.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Mexico	5.0%	1.2%	+1.3 pts ᴷ
USA	4.4%	3.5%	+0.4 pts ᴷ