World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+2.0	+0.0	+2.0 pts ᴷ
Brazil	+1.1	+0.0	+1.1 pts ᴷ
Spain	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Germany	-3.6	+0.0	−3.6 pts ᴷ
Argentina	-0.6	+0.0	−0.6 pts ᴷ
England	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Belgium	-0.1	+0.0	−0.1 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Argentina	21.0%	13.4%	7.6 pts
France	26.4%	19.8%	6.7 pts
Germany	0.1%	5.7%	5.5 pts
Spain	10.7%	13.9%	3.2 pts
England	9.5%	12.6%	3.0 pts
Mexico	3.4%	1.2%	2.2 pts
Brazil	7.2%	5.5%	1.6 pts
Colombia	2.8%	1.5%	1.4 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	26.4%	19.8%	+2.0 pts ᴷ
Argentina	21.0%	13.4%	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Spain	10.7%	13.9%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
England	9.5%	12.6%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Brazil	7.2%	5.5%	+1.1 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.8%	6.8%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	6.1%	5.5%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Germany	0.1%	5.7%	−3.6 pts ᴷ
USA	3.9%	3.5%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Mexico	3.4%	1.2%	+0.0 pts ᴷ