World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+2.0	+3.6	+3.6 pts ᴾ
Brazil	+1.1	+1.1	+1.1 pts ᴷ
Spain	+0.3	+0.2	+0.3 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Norway	+0.0	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Germany	-3.6	-3.8	−3.8 pts ᴾ
Argentina	-0.6	-0.6	−0.6 pts ᴷ
England	-0.5	-0.1	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	+0.2	-0.4	−0.4 pts ᴾ
Belgium	-0.1	+0.0	−0.1 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Mexico	3.4%	1.2%	2.2 pts
USA	3.9%	2.4%	1.6 pts
Netherlands	6.1%	4.6%	1.5 pts
Portugal	6.8%	5.9%	1.0 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Argentina	21.0%	20.1%	0.9 pts
Spain	10.7%	11.3%	0.7 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	26.4%	26.6%	+3.6 pts ᴾ
Argentina	21.0%	20.1%	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Spain	10.7%	11.3%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
England	9.5%	10.2%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Brazil	7.2%	7.0%	+1.1 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.8%	5.9%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	6.1%	4.6%	−0.4 pts ᴾ
Germany	0.1%	0.1%	−3.8 pts ᴾ
USA	3.9%	2.4%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Mexico	3.4%	1.2%	+0.1 pts ᴾ