World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+3.2	+0.0	+3.2 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	+0.7	+0.0	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Norway	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Portugal	-3.3	+0.0	−3.3 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.7	+0.0	−0.7 pts ᴷ
France	-0.4	+0.0	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	-0.4	+0.0	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Germany	-0.2	+0.0	−0.2 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Argentina	21.6%	13.4%	8.2 pts
France	24.4%	19.8%	4.6 pts
Spain	10.4%	13.9%	3.5 pts
England	10.0%	12.6%	2.5 pts
Mexico	3.4%	1.2%	2.2 pts
Germany	3.7%	5.7%	2.0 pts
Japan	1.0%	2.4%	1.4 pts
Colombia	2.6%	1.5%	1.1 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	24.4%	19.8%	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Argentina	21.6%	13.4%	+3.2 pts ᴷ
Spain	10.4%	13.9%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
England	10.0%	12.6%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.6%	6.8%	−3.3 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.1%	5.5%	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	5.9%	5.5%	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Germany	3.7%	5.7%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
USA	3.6%	3.5%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Mexico	3.4%	1.2%	−0.1 pts ᴷ