World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · June 29, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-06-29 00:50:09 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
| Team | Kalshi Δ | Polymarket Δ | Largest move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | +3.2 | +2.7 | +3.2 pts ᴷ |
| Colombia | +0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 pts ᴾ |
| Netherlands | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.7 pts ᴷ |
| England | -0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 pts ᴾ |
| USA | -0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 pts ᴾ |
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 3.4% | 1.1% | 2.3 pts |
| France | 24.4% | 22.9% | 1.4 pts |
| USA | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2 pts |
| Argentina | 21.6% | 20.6% | 1.0 pts |
| Congo DR | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Portugal | 6.6% | 5.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Netherlands | 5.9% | 5.1% | 0.8 pts |
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 24.4% | 22.9% | −0.7 pts ᴾ |
| Argentina | 21.6% | 20.6% | +3.2 pts ᴷ |
| Spain | 10.4% | 11.2% | −0.7 pts ᴷ |
| England | 10.0% | 10.2% | +0.3 pts ᴾ |
| Portugal | 6.6% | 5.8% | −3.3 pts ᴷ |
| Brazil | 6.1% | 5.9% | −0.4 pts ᴷ |
| Netherlands | 5.9% | 5.1% | +0.7 pts ᴷ |
| Germany | 3.7% | 3.9% | −0.2 pts ᴷ |
| USA | 3.6% | 2.4% | +0.2 pts ᴾ |
| Mexico | 3.4% | 1.1% | −0.1 pts ᴷ |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-06-29 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.