World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+3.7	+0.0	+3.7 pts ᴷ
France	+1.9	+0.0	+1.9 pts ᴷ
Colombia	+1.0	+0.0	+1.0 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+0.9	+0.0	+0.9 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.4	+0.0	+0.4 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	-2.0	+0.0	−2.0 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	-1.1	+0.0	−1.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	-0.7	+0.0	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Norway	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Morocco	-0.2	+0.0	−0.2 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	24.8%	19.8%	5.0 pts
Argentina	18.4%	13.4%	5.0 pts
Portugal	9.9%	6.8%	3.1 pts
Spain	11.1%	13.9%	2.8 pts
England	10.1%	12.6%	2.4 pts
Mexico	3.5%	1.2%	2.3 pts
Germany	3.9%	5.7%	1.8 pts
Japan	1.1%	2.4%	1.2 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	24.8%	19.8%	+1.9 pts ᴷ
Argentina	18.4%	13.4%	+3.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	11.1%	13.9%	−2.0 pts ᴷ
England	10.1%	12.6%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Portugal	9.9%	6.8%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.5%	5.5%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Germany	3.9%	5.7%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	5.2%	5.5%	−1.1 pts ᴷ
USA	3.7%	3.5%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Mexico	3.5%	1.2%	+0.9 pts ᴷ