World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+3.7	+3.2	+3.7 pts ᴷ
France	+1.9	+2.1	+2.1 pts ᴾ
Colombia	+1.0	+0.4	+1.0 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+0.9	-0.1	+0.9 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.4	+0.3	+0.4 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	-2.0	-1.9	−2.0 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	-1.1	-1.0	−1.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	-0.7	-0.6	−0.7 pts ᴷ
USA	+0.0	-0.6	−0.6 pts ᴾ
England	+0.1	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Mexico	3.5%	1.1%	2.4 pts
Portugal	9.9%	8.1%	1.9 pts
USA	3.7%	2.1%	1.6 pts
France	24.8%	23.6%	1.2 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Brazil	6.5%	5.7%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Colombia	2.6%	1.9%	0.7 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	24.8%	23.6%	+2.1 pts ᴾ
Argentina	18.4%	17.9%	+3.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	11.1%	11.3%	−2.0 pts ᴷ
England	10.1%	10.0%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Portugal	9.9%	8.1%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.5%	5.7%	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Germany	3.9%	4.0%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	5.2%	4.8%	−1.1 pts ᴷ
USA	3.7%	2.1%	−0.6 pts ᴾ
Mexico	3.5%	1.1%	+0.9 pts ᴷ