{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-29","as_of":"2026-06-29T00:50:09Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-29.json","source_sha256":"871ef4fe00f16ce2a154c4b4bd198ec2fb0668c3f603d349a945da13794a3f31","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-29T00:50:09Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":2568,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":2523},{"venue":"polymarket","count":45}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1823,"polymarket":45,"total":1868},"last_updated":"2026-06-29T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":510079913.64,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":575152404.45,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":64813453.59,"polymarket_usd":95849394.13,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-06-29T00:50:09Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.244,"oi_contracts":22022993.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1975,"liquidity_usd":7536834.24,"volume_24h_usd":1460424.97},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.78,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.075,"polymarket":0.031},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.167,0.168,0.186,0.18,0.187,0.185,0.187,0.194,0.2,0.2,0.203,0.194,0.229,0.248],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":225905.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.9,"oi_contracts":103931.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":177677.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":430938.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.244,"oi_contracts":22022993.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.216,"oi_contracts":21004573.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1335,"liquidity_usd":8122015.32,"volume_24h_usd":2852644.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.56,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.032,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.097,"polymarket":0.016},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.125,"polymarket":0.048},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.089,0.087,0.091,0.115,0.108,0.108,0.109,0.119,0.138,0.135,0.152,0.142,0.147,0.184],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.93,"oi_contracts":80610.66,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":329569.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.62,"oi_contracts":238491.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.21,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.82,"oi_contracts":203788.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.23,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.216,"oi_contracts":21004573.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.104,"oi_contracts":14784181.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1385,"liquidity_usd":9328413.6,"volume_24h_usd":3808844.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.21,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.007,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.038,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.067,"polymarket":-0.031},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.169,0.15,0.144,0.136,0.134,0.133,0.123,0.142,0.138,0.133,0.134,0.134,0.131,0.111],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.45,"oi_contracts":154253.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":91012.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":110932.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.87,"oi_contracts":38328.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.104,"oi_contracts":14784181.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":13168575.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1255,"liquidity_usd":8202039.69,"volume_24h_usd":1183072.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.86,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.43,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.028,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.014,"polymarket":0.014},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.104,0.103,0.104,0.129,0.131,0.128,0.129,0.128,0.123,0.104,0.104,0.098,0.1,0.101],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":77153.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":90383.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.62,"oi_contracts":76074.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.89,"oi_contracts":30880.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":13168575.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.066,"oi_contracts":23945017.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0675,"liquidity_usd":6052229.96,"volume_24h_usd":2246029.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.2,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.033,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.027,"polymarket":-0.035},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.116,0.115,0.112,0.082,0.08,0.067,0.067,0.068,0.07,0.093,0.084,0.099,0.095,0.099],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.68,"oi_contracts":41657.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":176357.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":66832.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":185073.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.2,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.066,"oi_contracts":23945017.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.061,"oi_contracts":14010924.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0555,"liquidity_usd":8126910.72,"volume_24h_usd":1003235.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.031,"polymarket":-0.038},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.07,0.067,0.067,0.068,0.068,0.068,0.062,0.057,0.057,0.05,0.057,0.058,0.061,0.065],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":125233.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":143551.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":86447.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":86200.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.061,"oi_contracts":14010924.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.059,"oi_contracts":22062640.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0545,"liquidity_usd":2028399.23,"volume_24h_usd":1786298.38},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.79,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.35,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.012,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.015,"polymarket":0.016},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.05,0.048,0.045,0.044,0.043,0.041,0.076,0.071,0.066,0.071,0.068,0.083,0.063,0.052],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":98735.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":178413.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":206611.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":90400.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.059,"oi_contracts":22062640.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.037,"oi_contracts":13200497.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0565,"liquidity_usd":2093626.13,"volume_24h_usd":2189050.02},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.87,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.36,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.019,"polymarket":0.005},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.059,0.061,0.062,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.059,0.057,0.053,0.052,0.053,0.048,0.046,0.039],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":50127.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.87,"oi_contracts":42751.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":36986.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":46473.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.037,"oi_contracts":13200497.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.036,"oi_contracts":38682251.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0355,"liquidity_usd":4600056.37,"volume_24h_usd":2700371.55},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":8.4,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.8,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.012,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":0.024},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.039,0.036,0.035,0.039,0.036,0.051,0.049,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.05,0.045,0.037,0.037],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":376361.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":318774.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.82,"oi_contracts":328644.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.48,"oi_contracts":504036.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.036,"oi_contracts":38682251.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.034,"oi_contracts":28777047.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"liquidity_usd":9311699.22,"volume_24h_usd":1189387.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.25,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.016,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.02,0.019,0.017,0.018,0.017,0.019,0.022,0.018,0.018,0.022,0.018,0.032,0.026,0.035],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":198700.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":313861.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":450909.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":262212.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.034,"oi_contracts":28777047.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.026,"oi_contracts":14593113.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"liquidity_usd":4810613.6,"volume_24h_usd":2089595.87},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.17,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.84,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":-0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.017,0.017,0.017,0.018,0.016,0.017,0.019,0.016,0.017,0.018,0.018,0.017,0.016,0.026],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.78,"oi_contracts":108541.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.2,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":32004.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":114907.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":153305.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.23,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.22,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.026,"oi_contracts":14593113.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":14050587.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0235,"liquidity_usd":1695216.34,"volume_24h_usd":2683112.46},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.05,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.29,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":0.005},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.017,0.016,0.016,0.016,0.016,0.016,0.013,0.02,0.02,0.018,0.018,0.021,0.011,0.011],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":87721.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":59533.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":133785.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":79890.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":14050587.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.012,"oi_contracts":15271369.94,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"liquidity_usd":2365949.8,"volume_24h_usd":1357713.42},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.32,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.011,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.022,0.022,0.023,0.021,0.02,0.028,0.022,0.023,0.02,0.019,0.019,0.014,0.015,0.013],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":122399.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":52726.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":62023.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":60103.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.012,"oi_contracts":15271369.94,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":13278669.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0195,"liquidity_usd":4029250.4,"volume_24h_usd":2590050.95},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.009},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.025,0.022,0.029,0.026,0.026,0.027,0.027,0.023,0.022,0.029,0.029,0.024,0.021,0.018],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":67765.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":42546.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":53907.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":45960.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":13278669.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":10884219.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0105,"liquidity_usd":5914263.82,"volume_24h_usd":7744841.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.36,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.03,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.0005},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.012,"polymarket":-0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.019,0.018,0.018,0.018,0.017,0.016,0.016,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.01,0.011,0.01,0.013],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":40874.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":33029.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":31825.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":80810.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":10884219.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":430045.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":22745343.45,"volume_24h_usd":1808131.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.09,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.95,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":12974.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":36705.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6993.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":12512.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":430045.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":452806.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":12599050.64,"volume_24h_usd":114121.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.1,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.19,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":21831.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":14153.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":17317.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":61346.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":452806.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":11506267.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":4659527.73,"volume_24h_usd":933509.3},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.5,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.005},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.012,0.009,0.009,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.01,0.008,0.008,0.008],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":14288.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":24606.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":22206.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.68,"oi_contracts":37046.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":11506267.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":12458026.81,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":10388421.77,"volume_24h_usd":934840.22},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.71,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.006,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.006,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.006,0.002,0.004,0.002,0.006,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":48249.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":24592.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":24265.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":21500.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":12458026.81,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":15468535.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":6760589.47,"volume_24h_usd":1244562.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.36,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.18,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.007},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.004,0.004,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.006,0.007,0.006],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":83985.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":87874.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.29,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":23363.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":45491.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":15468535.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":13826917.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":5129323.16,"volume_24h_usd":3684424.04},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.0,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.89,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":-0.004},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.007,0.005,0.004,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.005,0.005],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":19737.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":27181.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":20831.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":17872.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":13826917.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":15119727.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":9406889.34,"volume_24h_usd":2604130.78},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.28,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.64,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.005,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.005,0.003,0.005,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":50602.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":13180.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":10649.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":78270.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":15119727.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":13135696.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":8696479.92,"volume_24h_usd":1764458.32},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.85,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.51,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":11652.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":6533.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3819.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":53588.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":13135696.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":12828848.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":11788829.69,"volume_24h_usd":1211866.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.79,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.002,0.003,0.002,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":7319.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":17122.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":27914.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":12828848.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":11718949.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":20349927.41,"volume_24h_usd":996642.11},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.55,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.54,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.004,0.003,0.004,0.004,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":11535.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":11057.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":8632.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.43,"oi_contracts":37924.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":11718949.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":11407073.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":13269541.19,"volume_24h_usd":3414779.36},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.48,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":42109.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":126105.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.2,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":4345.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":6730.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":11407073.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":13277666.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":12479177.54,"volume_24h_usd":1076463.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.17,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.003},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.002,0.002,0.003,0.003,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4182.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":10806.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":3831.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":31716.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":13277666.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":8171595.94,"volume_24h_usd":3798944.45},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.42,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.003,0.004,0.004,0.003,0.003,0.002,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":15943955.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":2191854.5,"volume_24h_usd":20723374.37},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.46,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.38,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":108633.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":24795.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":56305.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":12382.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":15943955.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":8916571.28,"volume_24h_usd":7957988.03},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.55,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.009},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":11545319.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":17487887.72,"volume_24h_usd":2485109.2},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.51,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.04,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":3009.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":23525.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":6160.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":52594.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":11545319.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":11130302.78,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":11559335.57,"volume_24h_usd":1123355.56},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.42,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.01,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":6363.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5541.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":7088.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":29747.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.14,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":11130302.78,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":15598421.04,"volume_24h_usd":1023335.91},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.71,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.002,0.003,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":10431331.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":16572770.58,"volume_24h_usd":211080.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.27,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.88,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1483.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1436.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":8258.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":10923.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":10431331.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":29038276.0,"volume_24h_usd":190960.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.05,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":28105177.69,"volume_24h_usd":30870.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.89,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":24934838.94,"volume_24h_usd":10000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.34,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":30302890.52,"volume_24h_usd":4000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.27,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":10811.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Qatar","slug":"qatar","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":28295593.46,"volume_24h_usd":4000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.92,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Uzbekistan","slug":"uzbekistan","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":25617642.37,"volume_24h_usd":3000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.45,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":30410813.3,"volume_24h_usd":5002.5},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.29,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":11633256.9,"volume_24h_usd":1077125.33},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":29095386.79,"volume_24h_usd":251940.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.06,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":17362880.36,"volume_24h_usd":37195.45},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.002},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":17366591.74,"volume_24h_usd":239510.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":829324.94,"volume_24h_contracts":141459.19,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.31,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":784383.92,"volume_24h_contracts":61037.35,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ousmane 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