World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	+1.9	+0.2	+1.9 pts ᴷ
Argentina	+1.0	+0.0	+1.0 pts ᴷ
Japan	+0.7	+0.8	+0.8 pts ᴾ
France	+0.7	+0.0	+0.7 pts ᴷ
USA	-0.1	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Netherlands	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.1	-0.5	−0.5 pts ᴾ
Brazil	-0.5	-0.2	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Norway	-0.4	-0.5	−0.5 pts ᴾ
Belgium	-0.5	-0.4	−0.5 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Netherlands	7.1%	5.5%	1.6 pts
USA	4.8%	3.8%	1.1 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Mexico	1.8%	1.2%	0.5 pts
France	19.4%	19.8%	0.4 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	19.4%	19.8%	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	14.2%	13.9%	+1.9 pts ᴷ
England	12.8%	12.6%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Argentina	11.9%	11.8%	+1.0 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	7.1%	5.5%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.8%	6.7%	−0.5 pts ᴾ
Brazil	5.7%	5.8%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Germany	5.7%	5.3%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
USA	4.8%	3.8%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Morocco	2.3%	2.2%	+0.1 pts ᴷ