World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Netherlands	+3.5	+1.5	+3.5 pts ᴷ
France	+0.2	+1.3	+1.3 pts ᴾ
Mexico	+0.3	-0.2	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Colombia	+0.2	-0.2	+0.2 pts ᴷ
England	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	-1.0	+0.0	−1.0 pts ᴷ
Brazil	-0.6	-0.7	−0.7 pts ᴾ
Morocco	-0.6	-0.6	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Germany	-0.1	-0.4	−0.4 pts ᴾ
Japan	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Netherlands	7.6%	5.5%	2.1 pts
USA	4.9%	3.5%	1.4 pts
Spain	12.3%	13.7%	1.4 pts
France	18.7%	19.8%	1.1 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Mexico	2.2%	1.2%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	18.7%	19.8%	+1.3 pts ᴾ
Spain	12.3%	13.7%	−1.0 pts ᴷ
England	12.9%	12.6%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Argentina	10.9%	11.8%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	7.6%	5.5%	+3.5 pts ᴷ
Portugal	6.7%	7.1%	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Brazil	6.2%	5.9%	−0.7 pts ᴾ
Germany	5.9%	5.7%	−0.4 pts ᴾ
USA	4.9%	3.5%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.7%	2.5%	+0.0 pts ᴷ