World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+1.9	+1.6	+1.9 pts ᴷ
France	+0.6	+0.0	+0.6 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.2	+0.1	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Japan	+0.0	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴾ
Colombia	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.4	+0.0	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Germany	-0.4	+0.3	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Morocco	-0.3	-0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	4.8%	3.5%	1.3 pts
Netherlands	6.6%	5.5%	1.2 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Mexico	1.8%	1.2%	0.5 pts
Argentina	13.8%	13.4%	0.5 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	20.0%	19.8%	+0.6 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.8%	13.9%	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Argentina	13.8%	13.4%	+1.9 pts ᴷ
England	12.3%	12.6%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Portugal	7.0%	6.8%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	6.6%	5.5%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Brazil	5.7%	5.5%	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Germany	5.3%	5.7%	−0.4 pts ᴷ
USA	4.8%	3.5%	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Japan	2.0%	2.4%	+0.2 pts ᴾ