{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-22","as_of":"2026-06-22T00:50:10Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-22.json","source_sha256":"b7a95e513d145301fd9236d9d753198822fcc801e0bddb681aa7f0370a7afe8d","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-22T00:50:10Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":3610,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":3531},{"venue":"polymarket","count":79}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":2380,"polymarket":79,"total":2459},"last_updated":"2026-06-22T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":454408068.56,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":549905530.44,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":67158957.71,"polymarket_usd":93636033.07,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-06-22T00:50:10Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.194,"oi_contracts":14510286.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1975,"liquidity_usd":7409554.61,"volume_24h_usd":1198383.79},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.9,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.35,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.027,"polymarket":0.037},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.015,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1615,0.1615,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1715,0.1815,0.1845,0.1845,0.1845,0.1975]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.83,"oi_contracts":48469.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":114924.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.62,"oi_contracts":89952.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":114615.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.194,"oi_contracts":14510286.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.142,"oi_contracts":11591826.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1385,"liquidity_usd":8379543.18,"volume_24h_usd":3777089.04},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.12,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.53,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.019,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.027,"polymarket":-0.022},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.026,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1615,0.1595,0.1605,0.1645,0.1695,0.1685,0.1655,0.1605,0.1465,0.1325,0.1375,0.1365,0.1365,0.1365]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":107598.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":78506.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":73494.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.81,"oi_contracts":29030.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.142,"oi_contracts":11591826.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.128,"oi_contracts":10426540.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1255,"liquidity_usd":7649577.67,"volume_24h_usd":1704265.3},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.8,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.4,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.024,"polymarket":0.029},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.017,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1105,0.1095,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055,0.0965,0.0965,0.0965,0.1055,0.1045,0.1285,0.1285,0.1255,0.1255]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":59792.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":81177.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":41756.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.81,"oi_contracts":28978.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.128,"oi_contracts":10426540.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.119,"oi_contracts":12354267.13,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1175,"liquidity_usd":7960156.7,"volume_24h_usd":2558902.01},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.32,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.45,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":0.038},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.024,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0885,0.0845,0.0875,0.0855,0.0885,0.0785,0.0785,0.0795,0.0845,0.1015,0.1155,0.1175,0.1175,0.1175]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.76,"oi_contracts":73576.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":118884.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":89295.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":140905.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.119,"oi_contracts":12354267.13,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.071,"oi_contracts":16674157.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0545,"liquidity_usd":3430879.69,"volume_24h_usd":2349830.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.48,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.63,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.021,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.036,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0405,0.044,0.0475,0.0485,0.0515,0.0445,0.0455,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0545]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":69476.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":106173.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":172842.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":59493.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.071,"oi_contracts":16674157.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.068,"oi_contracts":17447453.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0665,"liquidity_usd":6309066.13,"volume_24h_usd":2011326.35},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.69,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.15,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.005},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.048,"polymarket":-0.044},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.016,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0965,0.0985,0.1015,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055,0.1055,0.1105,0.1075,0.1005,0.0775,0.0775,0.0735,0.0715]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.68,"oi_contracts":37651.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":137726.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":56134.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":166532.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.068,"oi_contracts":17447453.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.057,"oi_contracts":9698747.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0575,"liquidity_usd":7869684.52,"volume_24h_usd":797939.2},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.61,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.44,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.013,"polymarket":-0.01},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0835,0.0835,0.0845,0.0845,0.0865,0.0835,0.0765,0.0675,0.0665,0.0665,0.0665,0.0665,0.0665,0.0595]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":75711.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":113883.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":74715.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":57797.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.057,"oi_contracts":9698747.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.057,"oi_contracts":9845933.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0535,"liquidity_usd":1690135.05,"volume_24h_usd":2064306.64},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.65,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.007},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.006,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0545,0.0535,0.0525,0.0525,0.0515,0.0515,0.0515,0.0605,0.0635,0.0585,0.0565,0.0585,0.0605,0.0565]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":37879.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.82,"oi_contracts":33677.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":30839.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":34262.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.057,"oi_contracts":9845933.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.048,"oi_contracts":28116156.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0375,"liquidity_usd":3954292.42,"volume_24h_usd":3126578.12},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":7.56,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.72,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":0.017},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.033,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0195,0.0205,0.0205,0.0215,0.0225,0.0225,0.0335,0.0345]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":257715.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":223664.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":274207.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.51,"oi_contracts":298900.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.048,"oi_contracts":28116156.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":12295347.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0225,"liquidity_usd":2388927.0,"volume_24h_usd":2173425.1},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.3,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.44,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0165,0.0195,0.0175,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0235,0.0205,0.0215,0.0265,0.0235,0.0235,0.0285,0.0225]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":95463.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":38982.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":46197.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":55705.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":12295347.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":8908171.85,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0195,"liquidity_usd":4252283.06,"volume_24h_usd":2217267.69},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.39,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.78,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.005},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.005},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0255,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0235,0.0245,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0255,0.0265,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":27621.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.62,"oi_contracts":41190.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":38981.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":33110.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":8908171.85,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":10296519.88,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"liquidity_usd":1235408.28,"volume_24h_usd":6805735.09},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.77,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.23,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175,0.0205,0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0165,0.0165,0.0165,0.0135,0.0135]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":64750.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":41433.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":88481.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":62743.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":10296519.88,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":19655797.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"liquidity_usd":9256428.64,"volume_24h_usd":2352832.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.28,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.69,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.009,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0135,0.0145,0.0125,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0125,0.0145,0.0145,0.0135,0.0145,0.0125]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.67,"oi_contracts":168606.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":209544.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":196592.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":190487.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":19655797.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":9524536.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"liquidity_usd":4842718.5,"volume_24h_usd":2530500.83},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.56,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.88,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0185,0.0195,0.0195,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175,0.0165,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0145,0.0165,0.0165,0.0145]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":81719.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":22256.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":89591.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":89832.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":9524536.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":7665314.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.011,"liquidity_usd":4818424.65,"volume_24h_usd":7188676.55},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.06,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.88,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.0045},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.008,"polymarket":-0.0085},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0205,0.0225,0.0225,0.0215,0.0205,0.0205,0.0205,0.0195,0.0175,0.0175,0.0165,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":35107.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":29745.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":26764.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":45042.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.12,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":7665314.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":384110.09,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":12432398.43,"volume_24h_usd":335842.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.1,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.27,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":21492.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":12074.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":9694.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":49882.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":384110.09,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":198479.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":22808025.2,"volume_24h_usd":1166466.45},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.05,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.17,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2286.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":7860.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":12231.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":7847.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":198479.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":153835.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":29639605.55,"volume_24h_usd":3002.5},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.41,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1361.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":7961.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":207.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":8222.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":153835.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":157143.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":17085423.76,"volume_24h_usd":83230.06},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.12,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1776.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":6158.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":11228.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6596.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":157143.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":7169308.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":4334943.23,"volume_24h_usd":1881756.09},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.93,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.79,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0105,0.0115,0.0125,0.0125,0.0145,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0095,0.0085,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":12060.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":9139.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":16481.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":28531.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":7169308.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":6323981.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":9880644.02,"volume_24h_usd":1013100.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.7,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0075,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0055,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":25182.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":9834.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":16192.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":12435.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":6323981.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":7916400.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":4592792.93,"volume_24h_usd":7699315.7},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.13,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.84,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.007},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":21630.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.12,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.23,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":17327.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":6568.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":11800.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":7916400.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":11236033.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":9037916.31,"volume_24h_usd":2608285.62},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.02,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.65,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":9467.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":37235.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.16,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8058.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":84186.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":11236033.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":8310432.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":5169330.09,"volume_24h_usd":3459710.64},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.23,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.94,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":23453.74,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":16510.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":19101.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":15253.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":8310432.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":6885196.25,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":9375316.91,"volume_24h_usd":1317884.21},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.85,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.71,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":5746.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":15230.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":55204.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":16754.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":6885196.25,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":10386929.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":8531604.67,"volume_24h_usd":3283915.28},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.79,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.56,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0045,0.0035,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":24826.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":56218.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":19034.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":20838.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":10386929.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":7009033.71,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":7092905.63,"volume_24h_usd":1823229.27},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.3,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":9273.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6492.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":2590.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":50440.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":7009033.71,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":7676888.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":10153882.35,"volume_24h_usd":1735598.71},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.06,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.86,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":890.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":23959.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":63189.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2453.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":7676888.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6769029.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":9562068.55,"volume_24h_usd":1694932.9},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.82,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.75,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0035,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0045,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":3753.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":9519.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":3005.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":36730.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6769029.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6195061.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":8081101.33,"volume_24h_usd":1145822.21},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.67,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.48,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":5405.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":10722.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":8578.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":27765.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6195061.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6731100.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":11389103.19,"volume_24h_usd":1272981.68},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.81,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.08,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5395.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5444.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":5493.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":23643.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6731100.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":7253975.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":15377482.94,"volume_24h_usd":1149640.12},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.95,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.81,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6200.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":10066.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":5373.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":19290.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":7253975.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":8661845.92,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":4654629.92,"volume_24h_usd":4977069.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.33,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.85,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":-0.006},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0075,0.0075,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":77814.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":66349.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.21,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.31,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":17418.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":39906.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":8661845.92,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":7758603.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":13040890.3,"volume_24h_usd":9657991.08},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.09,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.38,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":31326.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5211.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":20545.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":9965.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":7758603.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1161167.13,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":24572233.93,"volume_24h_usd":14815.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.31,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.49,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1422.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":748.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":32381.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5427.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1161167.13,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5500653.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":29690594.62,"volume_24h_usd":3000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.48,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.42,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5747.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":10811.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1876.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":18661.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5500653.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Qatar","slug":"qatar","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1319300.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":27572331.05,"volume_24h_usd":3005.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.35,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.04,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":18458.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":32597.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1347.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":334.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1319300.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":9825875.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":11569770.87,"volume_24h_usd":1023920.28},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.64,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.11,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":328.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":23655.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4470.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":30179.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.1,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":9825875.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2958824.36,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":28355011.01,"volume_24h_usd":106750.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.8,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.18,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1742.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":10281.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1987.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1489.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2958824.36,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1320760.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":27531032.32,"volume_24h_usd":42870.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.35,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.03,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":22993.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7894.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":608.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1966.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1320760.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uzbekistan","slug":"uzbekistan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2197456.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":24805609.17,"volume_24h_usd":7850.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.59,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.53,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1167.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":457.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":16353.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":2318.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2197456.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2550712.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":16990137.57,"volume_24h_usd":318088.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.69,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.1,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1262.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":15919.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":804.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":210.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2550712.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6792364.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":16280309.08,"volume_24h_usd":125855.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.83,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.97,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1317.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":4735.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":670.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":15458.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6792364.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6249243.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":17799505.24,"volume_24h_usd":1965915.14},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.68,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.25,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1023.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":20706.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":5440.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":48360.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6249243.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":811192.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":28518474.02,"volume_24h_usd":251010.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.22,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":5.21,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":12427.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4710.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8736.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1310.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":811192.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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