{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-21","as_of":"2026-06-21T00:50:13Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-21.json","source_sha256":"1f87c96837f9bfb75ee2f3e133c8251bcbfd147a947cb79c0062afd5fbe0f2d7","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-21T00:50:13Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":3603,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":3518},{"venue":"polymarket","count":85}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":2384,"polymarket":85,"total":2469},"last_updated":"2026-06-21T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":462251532.23,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":575443251.48,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":99045309.36,"polymarket_usd":78060008.71,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-06-21T00:50:13Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.187,"oi_contracts":14178213.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1975,"liquidity_usd":7242435.16,"volume_24h_usd":2079140.19},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.0,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.27,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.013},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.015,"polymarket":0.037},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1615,0.1615,0.1615,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1715,0.1815,0.1845,0.1845,0.1845]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.86,"oi_contracts":42890.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":97763.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":88636.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":107729.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.187,"oi_contracts":14178213.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.123,"oi_contracts":10743413.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1365,"liquidity_usd":9249545.79,"volume_24h_usd":808380.98},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.03,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.62,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.042,"polymarket":-0.029},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1615,0.1615,0.1595,0.1605,0.1645,0.1695,0.1685,0.1655,0.1605,0.1465,0.1325,0.1375,0.1365,0.1365]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":104503.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":66428.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":60157.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.77,"oi_contracts":25895.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.123,"oi_contracts":10743413.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.129,"oi_contracts":9959258.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1255,"liquidity_usd":7087185.22,"volume_24h_usd":1807335.51},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.81,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.24,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.025,"polymarket":0.029},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1125,0.1105,0.1095,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055,0.0965,0.0965,0.0965,0.1055,0.1045,0.1285,0.1285,0.1255]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":54693.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":37474.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":78205.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.84,"oi_contracts":25667.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.129,"oi_contracts":9959258.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.109,"oi_contracts":11630362.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1175,"liquidity_usd":7796447.8,"volume_24h_usd":1276228.62},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.28,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.36,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":0.039},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0885,0.0885,0.0845,0.0875,0.0855,0.0885,0.0785,0.0785,0.0795,0.0845,0.1015,0.1155,0.1175,0.1175]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":60681.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":115258.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":84790.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":137642.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.109,"oi_contracts":11630362.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.076,"oi_contracts":15695668.96,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0545,"liquidity_usd":1973323.69,"volume_24h_usd":3609686.65},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.42,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.34,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.035,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.018,"polymarket":0.006},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0405,0.044,0.0475,0.0485,0.0515,0.0445,0.0455,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.65,"oi_contracts":61203.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":96953.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":162948.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":55183.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.14,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.076,"oi_contracts":15695668.96,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.067,"oi_contracts":17114448.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0715,"liquidity_usd":5743006.93,"volume_24h_usd":1239483.09},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.82,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.0,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.042,"polymarket":-0.034},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1005,0.0965,0.0985,0.1015,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055,0.1055,0.1105,0.1075,0.1005,0.0775,0.0775,0.0735]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.63,"oi_contracts":37250.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":135610.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":55641.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":165629.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.067,"oi_contracts":17114448.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.062,"oi_contracts":9549661.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0595,"liquidity_usd":6614148.98,"volume_24h_usd":1757758.39},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.69,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.16,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":-0.007},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":-0.017},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0825,0.0835,0.0835,0.0845,0.0845,0.0865,0.0835,0.0765,0.0675,0.0665,0.0665,0.0665,0.0665,0.0665]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":72251.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":113283.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":74652.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.68,"oi_contracts":56940.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.062,"oi_contracts":9549661.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.059,"oi_contracts":9567515.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0565,"liquidity_usd":5184825.5,"volume_24h_usd":3105259.18},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.7,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.91,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.008,"polymarket":0.005},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0575,0.0545,0.0535,0.0525,0.0525,0.0515,0.0515,0.0515,0.0605,0.0635,0.0585,0.0565,0.0585,0.0605]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":33010.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.82,"oi_contracts":33360.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":32450.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":23576.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.059,"oi_contracts":9567515.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.049,"oi_contracts":26642065.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0345,"liquidity_usd":2571925.98,"volume_24h_usd":5401544.08},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":7.51,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.45,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.011,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0195,0.0205,0.0205,0.0215,0.0225,0.0225,0.0335]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":228399.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":210284.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":258762.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":215214.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.049,"oi_contracts":26642065.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.027,"oi_contracts":8676654.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0245,"liquidity_usd":3739697.79,"volume_24h_usd":1086321.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.45,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.65,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0265,0.0255,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0235,0.0245,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0255,0.0265,0.0255,0.0245]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":26211.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":40714.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":32780.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":38626.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.027,"oi_contracts":8676654.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":11938371.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0225,"liquidity_usd":1872421.36,"volume_24h_usd":1101812.69},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.37,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.33,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":-0.006},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0155,0.0165,0.0195,0.0175,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0235,0.0205,0.0215,0.0265,0.0235,0.0235,0.0285]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.5,"oi_contracts":87329.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":37502.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":43844.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":54888.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":11938371.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":19095845.36,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"liquidity_usd":8368633.54,"volume_24h_usd":1767777.97},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.38,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.46,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0125,0.0135,0.0145,0.0125,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0125,0.0145,0.0145,0.0135,0.0145]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.65,"oi_contracts":154230.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":194049.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":185086.74,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":204150.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.022,"oi_contracts":19095845.36,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":9266041.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"liquidity_usd":5543828.91,"volume_24h_usd":2478466.36},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.61,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.97,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0175,0.0185,0.0195,0.0195,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175,0.0165,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0145,0.0165,0.0165]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":77732.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":22121.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":88944.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":89585.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":9266041.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":6941978.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0155,"liquidity_usd":5201225.61,"volume_24h_usd":1653435.91},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.96,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.91,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.005},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0195,0.0205,0.0225,0.0225,0.0215,0.0205,0.0205,0.0205,0.0195,0.0175,0.0175,0.0165,0.0155,0.0155]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.62,"oi_contracts":33273.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":29756.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":19146.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":45985.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":6941978.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.013,"oi_contracts":8949216.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0135,"liquidity_usd":2140773.07,"volume_24h_usd":3080328.65},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.52,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.37,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.006},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0205,0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175,0.0205,0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0165,0.0165,0.0165,0.0135]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":60527.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":34030.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":75486.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":56894.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.013,"oi_contracts":8949216.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":381068.75,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":11163363.27,"volume_24h_usd":389275.84},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.11,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.95,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":21492.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":9694.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":12074.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":47721.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":381068.75,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":193470.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":22398639.75,"volume_24h_usd":758105.6},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.05,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.91,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2286.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":7814.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":8804.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":7847.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":193470.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":156203.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":15555744.31,"volume_24h_usd":137554.21},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.72,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1776.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":6142.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":11228.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6596.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":156203.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":153460.92,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":28073616.67,"volume_24h_usd":29620.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.91,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1361.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":7961.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":207.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7892.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":153460.92,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":7167660.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":4168199.19,"volume_24h_usd":1536767.31},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.02,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.73,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0125,0.0115,0.0105,0.0115,0.0125,0.0125,0.0145,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0095,0.0085]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":12060.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":8866.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":16481.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":28264.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":7167660.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":7608549.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":4832563.81,"volume_24h_usd":1399641.04},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.14,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.84,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":22974.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":16510.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":17828.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":13903.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":7608549.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":6873543.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":11230406.81,"volume_24h_usd":1760267.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.94,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.96,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0055,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":20140.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":17326.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":6489.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":3756.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":6873543.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":6239118.87,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":8973993.71,"volume_24h_usd":627401.7},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.76,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.57,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0075,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":24599.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":9362.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":15405.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":12401.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":6239118.87,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":11011389.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":5507974.45,"volume_24h_usd":7204379.12},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.1,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.96,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":9457.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":36607.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7725.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":66055.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":11011389.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":8645075.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":5080083.16,"volume_24h_usd":2776435.72},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.44,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.89,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0075,0.0075,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":74636.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":17418.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":39569.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":60329.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.18,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":8645075.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":6672328.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":8838208.27,"volume_24h_usd":1482851.6},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.54,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0035,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":5717.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":15230.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":16624.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":54528.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.13,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":6672328.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":6918888.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":6673394.48,"volume_24h_usd":1103568.92},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.95,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.17,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":9273.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":47810.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6492.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":2580.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":6918888.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":10179701.15,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":7524824.29,"volume_24h_usd":1108266.56},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.87,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.32,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0045,0.0035,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":23367.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":55936.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":17941.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":20835.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":10179701.15,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":6896153.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":10419282.08,"volume_24h_usd":5916208.35},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.94,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.82,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":890.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":11891.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":60156.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2250.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":6896153.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6130819.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":17075474.55,"volume_24h_usd":626360.47},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.73,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.98,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":4294.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":9410.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8273.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":15094.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.19,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6130819.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6681707.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":8635481.98,"volume_24h_usd":4357502.42},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.51,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0035,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":3753.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":9347.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":3005.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":34265.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.1,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6681707.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6716631.19,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":11269997.37,"volume_24h_usd":3518092.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.89,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.97,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5395.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5444.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":5493.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":23744.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.21,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6716631.19,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6056966.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":17287695.88,"volume_24h_usd":2350446.73},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.71,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1023.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":5201.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":20463.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":42687.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6056966.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6673234.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":14896637.98,"volume_24h_usd":942128.13},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.6,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6200.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":10066.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":5349.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":18431.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6673234.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5475983.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":20123339.05,"volume_24h_usd":1293863.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.54,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.52,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":23169.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":4077.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":10449.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":9537.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5475983.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2394679.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":15492122.22,"volume_24h_usd":173964.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.68,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.71,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1262.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":15637.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":804.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":210.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2394679.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1161159.63,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":23018993.91,"volume_24h_usd":128494.15},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.33,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.02,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1422.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":748.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":32131.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":4573.74,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1161159.63,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5484803.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":27942627.22,"volume_24h_usd":6020.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.55,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.88,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5747.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":10811.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1876.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":18151.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5484803.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6673868.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":14797060.03,"volume_24h_usd":4018380.54},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.59,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1317.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":4673.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":670.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":14798.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6673868.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":8917965.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":16599024.11,"volume_24h_usd":698596.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.51,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.9,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":328.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":23229.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":3659.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":28745.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.12,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":8917965.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Qatar","slug":"qatar","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1316515.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":26004710.12,"volume_24h_usd":10020.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.37,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.54,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":18458.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":33296.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":334.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1347.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1316515.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":811192.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":27422981.06,"volume_24h_usd":25020.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.23,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.79,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":12395.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4710.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8736.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1310.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":811192.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2603426.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":26885067.51,"volume_24h_usd":41020.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.73,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1719.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":10015.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1987.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1489.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2603426.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1219438.22,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":26000599.83,"volume_24h_usd":36890.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.34,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.54,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":21362.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7894.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":608.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1966.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1219438.22,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Tunisia","slug":"tunisia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":24835077.59,"volume_24h_usd":58029.61},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.15,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.34,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3959.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4982.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":16347.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":15402.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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