World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+1.8	+1.0	+1.8 pts ᴷ
Argentina	+0.4	+1.7	+1.7 pts ᴾ
Norway	+0.7	+0.1	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+0.1	+0.5	+0.5 pts ᴾ
England	+0.1	-0.1	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	-0.6	-1.4	−1.4 pts ᴾ
Portugal	-0.3	-0.7	−0.7 pts ᴾ
Germany	+0.1	-0.5	−0.5 pts ᴾ
Uruguay	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	-0.3	+0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	3.5%	2.1%	1.4 pts
Portugal	11.2%	10.1%	1.1 pts
Spain	14.4%	13.2%	1.1 pts
Argentina	9.1%	10.2%	1.1 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	18.6%	18.1%	+1.8 pts ᴷ
Spain	14.4%	13.2%	−1.4 pts ᴾ
Portugal	11.2%	10.1%	−0.7 pts ᴾ
England	10.4%	10.4%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Argentina	9.1%	10.2%	+1.7 pts ᴾ
Brazil	6.7%	6.7%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Germany	6.2%	5.9%	−0.5 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	4.5%	4.5%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
USA	3.5%	2.1%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.9%	2.5%	+0.7 pts ᴷ